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A estação meteorológica mais aguda Internet Weather Station meteorologista de 5 dias Telefone: 1.888.856.6781 (de segunda a sexta-feira 8:30 am - 7:00 pm) Ventus W.194 estação meteorológica avançada com previsão detalhada mundial Meteostanice Hyundai WS 2094 INTERNETForex News 21:52 ECB, A Nomura Analistas da Nomura explicou que o BCE estendeu a APP em nove meses até, pelo menos, até Dezembro de 2017, com o ritmo de compras reduzido para 60 mil milhões de euros a partir de Abril de 2017. Por parâmetros técnicos, o BCE estendeu o balanço de vencimento e Eliminou a restrição do piso da taxa de depósito. As projeções de dezembro também mostraram que a previsão de inflação para 2019 permaneceu fora da faixa de meta para o BCE, sinalizando que poderia haver necessidade de mais acomodação. Globalmente, os anúncios de todayrsquo em combinação com os comentários do Presidente Draghirsquos indicam o compromisso do ECBrsquos de continuar apoiando a recuperação econômica além do final de 2017. "A ampliação do intervalo de maturidade do PSPP e a remoção do piso da taxa de depósito ajudam a nossa visão. O primeiro facilita a restrição do emitente para países menores como Portugal, embora ainda pudesse ser alcançado antes de junho de 2017. Nós nos ater ao nosso 2s5s30s steepener e estender o alvo em nossa 5s30s caixa ASW (longo 5y dinheiro) de -35bp para -45bp. Nós vemos um risco de aplainamento pullbacks nas próximas semanas, mas sugerem usando tal flattening como oportunidade para adicionar à inclinação vistas. Nós procuramos oportunidades para entrar em uma caixa com um aplainador periférico versus um núcleo steepener, onde Alemanha vs Espanha seria nossas escolhas preferidas, mas este comércio já se moveu um longo caminho today. quot 21:33 Envolvimento do mercado: dólar dos EUA subiu depois BCE - Westpac Os analistas do Westpac ofereceram uma cobertura de mercado. O sentimento do mercado global: O dólar e as acções subiram depois que o BCE estendeu o seu programa QE, prejudicando AUD / USD e NZD / USD. Taxas de juros: Os rendimentos do Tesouro dos EUA 10 anos subiram de 2,34 para 2,42, enquanto os rendimentos de 2 anos subiram de 1,09 para 1,13 antes de voltar para 1,10. Os futuros de fundos federais continuaram a implicar uma chance de 100 de uma subida das taxas em 14 de Dezembro, com mais duas subidas de taxas com preços para 2017. O aumento nos rendimentos dos EUA poderia ser uma resposta a mais estímulo do BCE durante um potencial ambiente fiscal de reflexão no NOS. Os rendimentos alemães do barril de 10yr levantaram-se inicialmente de 0.35 a 0.46 no meio do debate do mercado sobre como dovish o anúncio de ECB era, mas mais tarde retraced a 0.38 como o elemento afilando foi visto como trumped pela extensão de tempo mais longa. Moedas: O índice do dólar americano é 0,9 superior. O euro subiu inicialmente para 1.0874 após o anúncio do BCE, uma vez que alguns ficaram desapontados com o aspecto afilado, mas rapidamente reverteram e não se estabilizaram até 1.0598, enquanto os outros elementos mais pródigos foram incluídos. O USD / JPY subiu de 113.20 para 114.20. O AUD caiu de 0,7508 para 0,7429. NZD caiu de 0,7220 para 0,7150. AUD / NZD variou lateralmente entre 1.0380 e 1.0410.quot 21:19 USD / JPY: ponto morto entre 114.80 e 112.90 - Scotiabank Os analistas do Scotiabank explicaram que os lançamentos de dados domésticos para o Japão foram decepcionantes. QuotJapan Q3 GDP foi revisado mais baixo a 0.3, abaixo da estimativa preliminar de um ganho 0.5. As revisões sugerem que a economia estava em uma base mais sólida no início do ano, mas os dados do terceiro trimestre foram decepcionantes. A balança comercial de outubro revelou um superávit menor do que o esperado (e mais estreito em relação a setembro) de JPY587bn. quot USD / JPY técnicos de curto prazo : Neutro / bearishmdashSideways negociação persiste em USD / JPY, sugerindo que o rally de novembro / dezembro estabilizou padrões de preços semanais sugerem uma perda de impulso até finais de novembro / início de dezembro depois de três sólidas semanas de valor de ganhos. Continuamos a ver resistência em 114.80 e suporte chave a curto prazo em 112.90.quot 21:04 Vulnerabilidade de ponta em EUR / USD De uma perspectiva de hora em hora, o EUR / USD atingiu a menor leitura de momentum dos últimos 20 dias de negociação. Além disso, a recente descida da acção dos preços EUR / USD foi realçada por uma leitura acima da média no histograma do MACD. Embora esses momentos extremos possam migrar para períodos de tempo mais elevados, a última impressão horária do MACD mostra a dissipação da velocidade, comunicando assim os riscos de uma vulnerabilidade imediata. 21:03 Motivo de GBP / USD mudou para negativo Aumento do impulso descendente no GBP / USD trouxe o 4hr MACD para entrar na zona vermelha. Esta condição técnica certamente não seria de muita ajuda se o MACD hasnt estar sob zero por pelo menos uma semana de negociação. Isso reforça o argumento de que há espaço para uma maior depreciação do GBP / USD. O sinal pode ser tomado pelos comerciantes que seguem tendências como um gatilho para liquidar posições longas como por vendedores potenciais para preparar seus compromissos curtos. 21:02 USD / HUF em uma estrada transversal USD / HUF está experimentando atualmente um ambiente da alta volatilidade, mas falta uma tendência de meio termo dominante. De uma perspectiva de tendência seguinte, o set-up técnico poderia ser mais combustível se ADX onde não abaixo de 30 no gráfico de 1 hora. Endossando essa visão, uma média móvel simples de 50 períodos, presa entre o período de 200 e 800, faz com que o USD / HUF pareça estar em um estado de animação suspensa (pelo menos de uma perspectiva maior). Os comerciantes em stand-by podem procurar divergências bullish no momentum, alvejando o 800 SMA. Uma perfuração dos 50 SMA abaixo dos 200 mudaria o tom para baixo. Atualmente, o NZD / USD está sendo negociado a 0,7176, subindo 0,17 no dia, tendo atingido alta diária em 0,7224 e baixa em 0,7146. NZD / USD está seguindo o terno do Aussie, fazendo uma correção menor dentro de uma tendência de touro que tem sido suportada pelos 200 sma nas varas de 1hr, para baixo em 0.7116 no momento da escrita. O par quebrou os 200 dma em 0,7105 tis montha nd permanece em forma ainda, embora frágil. O foco estava no comércio da China e da Austrália durante a noite, decepcionante na Austrália, mas melhor da China. O foco foi no BCE hoje que levantou o dólar devido ao alargamento da divergência entre o Fed e o BCE, porque o Fed provavelmente vai subir em dezembro, enquanto que para a economia da Nova Zelândia, parte da atenção recente foi em mais forte Os preços dos produtos lácteos que aumentaram, apoiando o pássaro, em geral, RBNZ Governador Wheeler envia sinais mistos para o ndash Kiwi MUFG Spot está actualmente a negociar em 0.7176, ea próxima resistência pode ser visto em 0,7181 (hora 20 EMA), 0.7188 (Daily Classic R1 ), 0,7195 (Weekly Classic R1), 0,7197 (Daily 100 SMA) e 0,7212 (Daily Classic R2). O próximo apoio para a desvantagem pode ser encontrado em 0.7169 (Ontem 39s High), 0.7164 (Daily Open), 0.7164 (Semanal Alta), 0.7146 (Daily Low) e 0.7145 (Daily Classic PP). 20:35 USD / JPY estabiliza acima de 114.00 USD / JPY estabilizado após rally de mais de uma centena de pips durante a sessão europeia após o anúncio do BCE de QE extensão / taper em meio à ampla USD força. O USD / JPY recuperou a marca de 114 e alcançou um pico de 114.37, embora tenha parado praticamente no mesmo nível que fez ontem. O par encontrou mais uma vez resistência e foi confinado a uma escala apertada sobre as horas passadas. No momento da escrita, USD / JPY está negociando em 114.15, ainda acima de 0.35 no dia. O dólar norte-americano consolidou-se através do conselho no rescaldo da decisão do ECB de estender e ao mesmo tempo afinar seu programa QE. Níveis técnicos de USD / JPY Em relação aos níveis técnicos, as próximas resistências para o USD / JPY são vistas em 114,39 (7 de dezembro), 114,76 (5 de dezembro de alta) e 115,00 (nível psicológico). Por outro lado, os apoios podiam ser encontrados em 113,49 (10 dias SMA), 112,85 (Dec 5 baixo) e 112,05 (Nov 30 baixo). Os estrategistas do Scotiabank no Scotiabank vêem o USD como sendo bastante subestimado em relação ao CAD, por quase um desvio padrão abaixo de seu valor justo estimado em 1,3499 hoje. Para adicionar insulto à injúria, USD / CAD suavidade também vai contra a força usual no USD normalmente visto nesta época do ano, eles notaram. LdquoO BoC manteve a política inalterada ontem ea declaração acompanhante foi invulgarmente curta e doce, negligenciando qualquer referência à avaliação de risco usual em torno da perspectiva de inflação. O tom baixo era um pouco dovish, em nossa opinião, principalmente porque o BoC escolheu destacar retardar o crescimento adiante ea divergência da política em curso entre Canadá e os EU. Therersquos realmente não muito novo nessa história em si, mas o governador Poloz se referiu à situação em uma entrevista recente e agora entrou na narrativa oficial. Enfatizar sua desvantagem em relação a outro é um convite para que os mercados empurrem sua moeda. Os spreads de curto prazo dos EUA e Canadá estão mantendo os ganhos dos mínimos da semana, enquanto os preços do petróleo permanecem acima de 50 / bbl. Todos os spreads mais firmes e o petróleo mais macio não estão sendo adequadamente refletidos no USDCAD, vemos que o USD está sendo significativamente subvalorizado neste ponto (quase um desvio padrão abaixo de nosso valor justo estimado em 1,3499). Para adicionar insulto à injúria, a suavidade USDCAD também vai contra a força usual no USD que nós normalmente vemos esta época do ano. rdquo ldquoUSDCAD técnicos de curto prazo: neutral / bearishmdashUSDCAD apenas canrsquot parecem realizar uma oferta no momento. O vazamento estável mais baixo no mercado está estendendo-se abaixo do apoio do retracement em 1.3230 e os riscos agora que deslizam para a área mid / superior 1.31. Os analistas da Brown Brothers Harriman explicaram que qualquer que seja o ritmo eo escopo do endurecimento do Fed, nós ainda acreditamos nisso. É muito importante para os investidores continuarem a se concentrar nos fundamentos do país e também na cobertura do risco cambial sempre que possível. QuotRegionally, Latin America é o melhor desempenho de equidade até agora em 2016 (acima de 24.3), seguido por EMEA (10.1) e então Ásia (7.1 YTD). Esperamos que esta tendência de desempenho se reverta um pouco, à medida que avançamos para 2017. Nosso grupo 1-rated (outperformers) para Q4 2016 é composto por República Checa, Coréia, Polônia, Israel e Cingapura. Israel melhorou de 2 para 1, enquanto a China piorou de 1 para 2. Nosso grupo 5-rated (underperformers) para Q4 2016 consiste em Turquia, Rússia, Egipto, África do Sul, e Brasil. Indonésia melhorou de 5 para 4, enquanto a Turquia piorou de 4 para 5. Outros movimentos notáveis incluem Taiwan, que melhorou de 3 para 2. Índia e Tailândia também melhorou, de 4 para 3. Por outro lado, o Chile piorou de 2 para 3 enquanto Qatar e Colômbia pioraram de 3 para 4.Quem 19:46 AUD / USD: frágil em 0.74 alça, testando a 1hr 200 sma Atualmente, AUD / USD está negociando a 0.7452, abaixo de -0.36 no dia, tendo postado um Diariamente elevado a 0,7510 e baixo a 0,7429. O AUD / USD começou a estabilizar o sell-off do top duplo acima de 0,75, uma área de resistência a longo prazo e um nível de fibo que o mercado não conseguiu penetrar com grande convicção. A balança comercial australiana não fez o trabalho RBAs qualquer justiça e aponta para um mau começo para o PIB Q4 dados nos calcanhares da contração desta semana sobre os dados para o terceiro trimestre. Tapering não na visão ndash ECBrsquos M. Draghi O preço está testando para trás com os 200 sma nas varas 1hr, contudo teve os dados recentes não tinham sido tão pobres, um pôde querer saber se o Aussie poderia ter começado um oferecimento sustentado no carreg O estatuto comercial dado hoje dobragem do BCE de hoje e subjacente o status de moeda de financiamento de euros para o futuro previsível. O ponto está negociando atualmente em 0.7453, e a resistência seguinte pode ser considerada em 0.7456 (hora 100 SMA), 0.7461 (Daily Classic PP), 0.7472 (hora 20 EMA), 0.7476 (diário 20 SMA) e 0.7480 (diário aberto). O apoio seguinte para a desvantagem pode ser encontrado em 0,7449 (por hora 200 SMA), 0,7440 (Semana Classic PP), 0,7436 (Daily Classic S1), 0,7429 (Daily Low) e 0,7419 (Weekly Low). Em uma ruptura abaixo da 0.74 alça, temos o 0,7312 / 10 meados de junho baixos eo retrocesso de 78,6 Fibonacci em 0,7287 / 81 como próximos níveis chave antes da baixa de maio em 0,7146 antes da baixa de 0,6828 janeiro. 19:03 Conclusões do BCE após anúncios de surpresa - Westpac Tim Riddell, analista do Westpac, explicou que o pico de hoje no anúncio do ECBrsquos colocou efetivamente o alto de uma provável faixa pré-FOMC logo acima de 1.0850. QuotOnce mercados perceberam que tinham lido errado o afilamento e que esta decisão abrange uma clara facilitação unraveled ganhos iniciais e EUR / USD caiu de volta ao comércio em torno de 1,0650. O esclarecimento da extensão da política durante a sessão QampA ressalta a divergência na política entre a zona do euro e os EUA. O perfil FOMCrsquos deve agora ditar a extensão desta divergência e, portanto, o potencial de EUR / USD no final do ano. O BCE surpreendeu com uma flexibilização da política e uma redução na sua restrição auto-imposta. As previsões não são substancialmente diferentes, mas o BCE afirmou claramente um viés mais dovish apesar de fornecer uma maior simetria de sua política mais flexível. O EUR estará agora em risco de ser uma moeda de financiamento de escolha, uma vez que os mercados abordem as reuniões da Política do Banco Central até o final do ano. Os rendimentos do Bund devem ser dirigidos para baixo na extremidade mais curta da curva, puxando curvas regionais com ela para uma inclinação de urso das curvas. O BCE está efectivamente a prestar apoio em profundidade e por mais tempo com a flexibilidade de alterar os parâmetros deste apoio. 18:47 EUR / JPY permanece em território de alta apesar do dohauto Draghi e do euro s sell-off Actualmente, EUR / JPY está a negociação em 121,27, abaixo de -0,96 no dia, tendo atingido alta diária de 123,38 e baixa em 121,05. ECB vai ficar no mercado ndash ECBrsquos Draghi Depois de um pico inicial sobre os anúncios iniciais do BCE 39 quando o BCE introduziu a palavra t - ING. O euro finalmente vendido. O BCE continua a esperar uma recuperação muito moderada e moderada na zona euro, com riscos inclinados para a desvantagem e, posteriormente, introduziu várias alterações ao seu programa QE. Draghi era pálido na QampA e tudo em tudo, Carsten Brzeski Economista Chefe, Alemanha, Áustria no ING explicou que, embora pelo menos à primeira vista, as decisões todayrsquos olhou, andou e quacked como afilando, Draghi presidente do BCE deu o seu melhor para convencer todos que Não está afunilando. "Nós tendemos a acreditar nele, mas se os mercados irão fazê-lo tão bem ou melhor dar ao BCE sua birra muito própria conicidade continua a ser visto." Tapering não à vista ndash ECBrsquos M. Draghi EUR / JPY caiu fortemente dentro da tendência de subida acentuada Começando no final de outubro, que atingiu um máximo de 123,33 na inicial pega nos mercados. Entretanto, o ross permanece no território bullish acima de 118.45 / 21st julho 2016 elevado e os 200 dias ma em 117.09 níveis que poderiam oferecer o apoio forte antes de 116.37 / 29 onde as elevações setembro e outubro foram feitas. O preço atual é 121,27, com resistência à frente em 121,52 (Daily Classic S3), 121,77 (Daily Classic S2), 121,96 (por hora 100 SMA), 122,03 (Yesterday39s Low) e 122,11 (Daily Classic S1). O próximo apoio para a desvantagem pode ser encontrado em 121.11 (Semanal Baixo), 121.10 (Por Hora 200 SMA), 121.05 (Daily Low), 120.52 (Weekly Classic PP) e 119.45 (Daily 20 SMA). 18:02 GBP / USD rompe decisivamente abaixo de 1.2600 GBP / USD acelerou as perdas e quebrou abaixo da marca de 1,26 e da SMA de 10 dias para bater baixos semanais frescos na área de 1,2550 em meio à ampla força USD. O greenback pegou o ritmo através da placa após o anúncio de ECB que seu afilando o QE quantia mas estendendo sua duração no tempo, GBP / USD que golpeia uma baixa de 1.2549 em negócios recentes. No momento da escrita, Cabo está negociando em 1.2552, para baixo 0.54 no dia. Adicionando à força do USD, os dados mostraram reivindicações semanais de jobless dos EU caíram 10.000 a 258k para a semana terminada dezembro 2, arrastando o par mais adicional no território negativo e cabendo do cabo na trilha por um terceiro dia consecutivo das perdas. Níveis de GBP / USD a considerar Em termos de níveis técnicos, os apoios imediatos podem ser encontrados em 1,2516 (21 dias de SMA), 1,2500 / 1,2499 (nível psicológico / 1 de Dezembro baixo) e 1,2429 (50 dias de SMA). Por outro lado, as resistências são vistas em 1,2703 (8 de dezembro de alta), 1,2773 / 79 (6 de dezembro alta / 100 dias de SMA) e 1,2859 (4 de outubro de alta). 17:39 O ouro mantém baixas diárias perto de 1.170 A onça troy do metal precioso está sofrendo o recém-upside no fanfarrão, navegando a área de baixas perto de 1.170. Gold mais fraco pós-ECB O metal amarelo está dando parte do avanço yesterdayrsquos, deflacionando, ao mesmo tempo, de todayrsquos bull run para a vizinhança de 1.180 durante o início do comércio. O ouro entrou sob pressão de venda renovada depois que a demanda para o greenback acelerou em resposta à mensagem dovish do ECB em sua reunião mais cedo hoje. O BCE modificou o seu programa QE, reduzindo as suas compras mensais a partir de Abril, embora não tenha discutido qualquer lsquotaperingrsquo. Além disso, as expectativas de aperto adicional pelo Federal Reserve nos próximos meses manter o metal sob forte pressão logo acima dos mínimos de vários meses em sub-1.160 níveis visto na segunda-feira. A partir da escrita Ouro está perdendo 0,37 em 1,173.15 e uma violação de 1,157.00 (baixa Dez.5) iria visar 1.129.90 (78.6 Fibo retracement do 2016 para cima mover) e finalmente 1.073.70 (baixo Jan.14). Em cima, o próximo obstáculo está localizado em 1,180.55 (alta Dec.8) à frente de 1.217,35 (alta Nov.21) e, em seguida, 1.219,05 (50 Fibo retracement da 2016 para cima mover). 17:34 EUR / USD estende perdas, aproxima-se a 1.0600 O euro estendeu perdas contra o greenback sobre as últimas horas e aproxima-se à marca 1.06 enquanto os investors continuam a focalizar no elemento de dovish do ECB. O Banco Central Europeu anunciou uma combinação de estender e diminuir o seu programa QE. O BCE alargará as compras para além de Março de 2017, mas reduzirá o montante mensal para 60 mil milhões de euros por mês, de Abril de 2017 até, pelo menos, Dezembro de 2017. O EUR / USD subiu inicialmente e atingiu um pico de 1,0873 para virar mais baixo. Tendo perdido mais de 250 pips nas últimas horas, o EUR / USD está actualmente a negociar na área 1.0615, registando uma perda de 1.26 no dia. Em termos de níveis técnicos, uma quebra abaixo de 1.0600 pavimentaria o caminho para 1.0584 (mínimo de 1 de dezembro) e 1.0519 (24 de novembro em baixa) antes de seu mínimo de 1 ano de 1.0504 (baixa de 2016, 5 de dezembro) . Por outro lado, as resistências podem ser encontradas em 1,0795 (5 de dezembro de alta), 1,0883 (50 dias de SMA) e 1,0923 (11 de novembro de alta). 17:34 Estados Unidos EIA Gás natural Mudança acima das expectativas (-43B) em dezembro 2: Real (-42B) 17:21 USD / CAD lutas em torno de 1.3200 Depois de cair para novos mínimos de 2 meses em níveis sub-13200, USD / CAD tem retomado o identificador 1.3200 está olhando agora para reunir alguma tração. USD / CAD mais baixo em ganhos do óleo O par se encontrou com a pressão vendendo crescente hoje apesar da recuperação forte do greenback que segue a mensagem dovish da reunião de ECB em sua reunião mais cedo hoje. O rebote dos preços do petróleo levou o barril do West Texas Intermediate de volta acima da marca crítica de 50,00, emprestando pernas extras para o CAD e, assim, pesando sobre o par downsquos. Na frente dos dados, as licenças de edifício canadenses levantaram-se acima do consenso 8.7 em uma base mensal em outubro, quando os começos de carcaça caíram para 184.0K em novembro, estimações faltantes. Em os EUA, reivindicações iniciais corresponderam às previsões em 258K WoW. USD / CAD níveis significativos Ao escrever o par está perdendo 0.22 em 1.3207 e uma ruptura de 1.3197 (baixo Dec.8) abriria a porta a 1.3194 (sma de 100 dias) e finalmente a 1.3065 (sma de 200 dias). Por outro lado, as linhas de resistência seguinte em 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo da queda de 2016) seguido de 1.3357 (alto Dec.5) e, em seguida, 1.3414 (20 dias sma). 17:14 Fed Funds em 1,26 até o final de 2017 WJ Survey De acordo com o último levantamento do WJ, a maioria dos economistas vê o Fed apertando na próxima reunião weekrsquos, enquanto eles esperam Fed Funds subindo para 1,26 até o final do próximo ano. Além disso, a pesquisa mostrou economistas agora esperam aumentos mais rápidos da taxa pelo Federal Reserve. Depois de ter caído para uma nova baixa semanal perto da região 1.0040, o par USD / CHF reverteu nitidamente e subiu rapidamente, passando de 1.0100 picos para 3 dias de pico. Atualmente negociando em torno de 1.0160 região, poucos pips fora do nível de pico de sessão de 1.0168, o par pegou ofertas frescas em um nível mais baixo em meio ao interesse de compra de greenback resurgente na vigília de decepção ECB-conduzida. A decisão do BCE de hoje surpreendeu os participantes do mercado, que esperavam que o banco central ampliasse seu atual programa de compra de bônus de 80 bilhões de euros por 6 meses. Em vez disso, o banco central estendeu-a apenas até abril de 2017 e diminuiu as compras para 60 bilhões de euros até o final de 2017. A moeda comum passou por intensa pressão de venda, que resultou em um forte aumento no dólar. Enquanto isso, em linha com estimativas reivindicações semanais de desemprego nos EUA adicionados ao sentimento bullish prevalente em torno do dólar dos EUA e desencadear um rally acentuado cobertura curta para o principal USD / CHF. Olhando para o futuro, os investidores permaneceriam focados na reunião do FOMC da próxima semana. Onde o Fed é amplamente esperado para aumentar as taxas de juros. Os mercados, entretanto, examinariam minuciosamente a declaração de taxas acompanhante (parcelas de pontos) para avaliar as possibilidades e o tempo da próxima ação de aumento da taxa do Fed em 2017 e, portanto, continuariam a ser um determinante chave da próxima etapa de movimento direcional do par. Níveis técnicos a observar A resistência imediata do upside é pegged perto da região 1.0175-80 acima de que o par parece dirigir imediatamente para 1.0200 marca de figura redonda. Um movimento convincente acima de 1.0200 identificador agora desencadear um novo ataque de curto-cobrindo e continuar a impulsionar o par mais para a resistência anual cerca de perto 1,0255-60 região. No lado de baixo, 1.0100 identificador agora se torna o apoio imediato, que se quebrado iria agora transformar o par vulnerável para quebrar através de apoio lows semanais perto da área 1.0040 e cabeça para testar seu próximo grande apoio perto de marca de paridade. 16:57 Dólar americano recupera 101.00 após o BCE O índice de Dólar americano ndash que mede o dólar versus uma cesta de seus principais rivais ndash saltou para níveis acima do identificador de 101.00 após a reunião do ECR todayrsquos. Dólar americano suportado em 99,50 Após um teste de baixos em meados da década de 99, o índice subiu rapidamente para a área de 101,00, ou novos tops de 3 dias, em resposta ao tom dovish em todayrsquos reunião do BCE e posterior conferência de imprensa por Mario Draghi. USD foi impulsionado depois de Draghi sublinhou que o Conselho do BCE não discutiu qualquer lsquotaperingrsquo. Lembre-se de que o BCE reduzirá as suas aquisições mensais de obrigações para 60 mil milhões de euros a partir de Abril de 2017 e deverá ter uma duração mínima até finais de Dezembro de 2017. Além disso, o BCE vai comprar activos abaixo da taxa de depósito, Dos activos que pode comprar, sugerindo ao mesmo tempo que o BCE permanecerá nos mercados por muito tempo. De volta aos EUA, as reivindicações iniciais aumentaram em 258KWow, levando a Média de 4 semanas para 252.50K de 251.50K. Olhando para dockets Fridayrsquos, avançado EUA Consumer Sentiment é esperado para melhorar a 94,5 para o mês atual, a partir de Novemberrsquos 93,8. Dólar EUA níveis relevantes O índice está avançando 0,79 em 101,07 enfrentando a próxima resistência em 101,88 (alta 30 de novembro), seguido por 102,12 (2016 alta Nov.24). Em contrapartida, uma quebra abaixo de 99,50 (baixa 8 de dezembro) abriria a porta para 99,38 (baixa 14 de novembro) e, finalmente, 99,01 (50 do movimento de novembro para cima). 16:41 BCE permanecerá no mercado ECBs Draghi Na última parte da conferência de imprensa todayrsquos, o Presidente Mario Draghi acrescentou: Não há ligação entre rendimentos e vontade de reforma. O dinheiro será aceito para o programa PSPP de empréstimos até EU50B, eo preço será vinculado à facilidade de taxa de depósito. BCE para aceitar dinheiro como garantia no programa de empréstimo de títulos. 16:34 EUR / GBP cai perto de 0.8430 em Draghi EUR / GBP pegou pressão extra de queda depois da conferência de imprensa de Draghirsquos, testando novas baixas na faixa de 0.8440 / 30. EUR / GBP mais fraco em EUR-weaknes A cruz européia encontrou uma onda de pressão vendendo depois que o presidente de ECBrsquo M. Draghi sublinhou que lsquotaperingrsquo seu programa QE atual não foi discutido na reunião todayrsquos. EUR rapidamente desbotou o otimismo inicial provocado após o BCE disse que vai reduzir suas compras mensais de títulos de abril de 2017 a dezembro de 2017, impulsionando a cruz para os máximos perto de 0,8570. No entanto, como a declaração foi em curso, a pressão de compra rapidamente fizzled fora, provocando uma onda de venda de juros. O BCE disse que o programa QE pode ser modificado em tamanho e extensão, se necessário, enquanto o banco vai agora comprar ativos abaixo da taxa de depósito. Ele também reiterou a necessidade de reformas estruturais urgentes na região, e disse que a área do euro tem crescido a um ritmo moderado. O Conselho de Governadores agora vê a economia expandindo-se em 1,7 em 2016 e 2017 e 1,6 em 2018. Além disso, o banco agora espera que a inflação medida pelo IPCA mais amplo suba 0,2 este ano, 1,3 em 2017 e 1,5 em 2018. A cruz está agora recuando 0,79 a 0,8451 de frente para o próximo suporte a 0,8298 (baixo Dec.5) seguido por 0,8295 (200 dias sma) e depois 0,8248 (baixo Jul.14). Por outro lado, uma ultrapassagem de 0,8553 (alta Dec.7) seguido de 0,8582 (alta 30 de novembro) e, finalmente, 0,8637 (sma de 100 dias). O par GBP / USD reverteu todos os seus ganhos iniciais para 1,2700 lidar e caiu abaixo de 1,2600 marca em meio à volatilidade liderada pelo BCE no mercado de FX. O par, entretanto, conseguiu saltar fora da baixa da sessão e está negociando atualmente com o viés negativo suave em torno da região 1.2610. O Banco Central Europeu (BCE) anunciou hoje a sua mais recente política monetária e deixou inalteradas as suas principais taxas de juro de referência. O banco central anunciou a extensão de seu programa de compra de ativos, em 80 bilhões de euros por mês até abril de 2017 e diminui para 60 bilhões de euros por mês até dezembro de 2017. Depois da reação bullish inicial, a moeda comum passou sob intensa pressão de venda, borda. De fato, o Índice Geral do Dólar Americano reverteu todas as suas perdas anteriores para o nível sub-100,00 e virou acentuadamente mais alto. O efeito de spillover pesou também no major de GBP / USD e o par derivou no território negativo para a terceira sessão consecutiva. Acrescente-se a isso, as reivindicações de desemprego semanal dos EUA caiu 10.000 a 258k para a semana terminou em 2 de dezembro e adicionado ao sentimento bullish prevalente em torno do greenback, arrastando eventualmente o par mais adicional no território negativo. Do ponto de vista técnico, a rejeição do par de apenas abaixo de 100 dias de resistência SMA, e tentativa subsequente fracassada de obstáculo forte imediato perto de 1.2700 alça, está apontando para downslide mais próximo no curto prazo. Níveis técnicos para assistir Fraqueza sustentada de volta abaixo 1.2600 marca de figura redonda agora deve arrastar o par abaixo 1.2570 apoio intermediário para o seu próximo apoio perto 1.2535 região. No lado positivo, qualquer tentativa de recuperação pode agora enfrentar a resistência imediata perto de 1,2640, que é seguido de perto por uma forte resistência perto da região 1,2670. Apenas um movimento decisivo de volta acima de 1.2670 resistência poderia agora negar o viés de baixa prazo. 16:09 Tapering não à vista ECBs M. Draghi Mais notícias do Presidente Mario Draghi em sua conferência de imprensa: Draghi diz que a decisão sobre a extensão QE tinha quotvery consenso ampla. A compra de QE abaixo da taxa do depósito é uma opção e não uma compra da necessidade abaixo da taxa do depósito assegura a execução lisa. Ele diz que o risco de deflação praticamente desapareceu. Não há dúvida sobre o afunilamento. O afunilamento não foi discutido hoje, acrescentando que a potencial redução no ritmo mensal de QE não foi considerada, ao mesmo tempo em que a redução de compras de ativos a zero não esteve na mesa. Draghi considerou a administração de Trumprsquos como lsquoradically newrsquo, adicionando que este e Brexit terão efeitos do médio a longo prazo. 16:05 EUR / JPY inverte mais de 150 pips em relação aos máximos de vários meses A pressão de venda em torno da moeda comum se intensificou, com a inversão de EUR / JPY em mais de 150 pips de máximos de vários meses tocados imediatamente após o anúncio da decisão do BCE. Atualmente negociando de volta abaixo 122,00 lidar, a cruz passou por intensa pressão de venda após comentários de abertura do presidente do BCE Mario Draghi revelou prontidão do banco central para manter as taxas de juros mais baixas por período prolongado e agir mais. Draghi adicionou ainda que o banco central usará todas as ferramentas no mandato do banco central como o conselho de governo não espera bater a meta de inflação dentro do horizonte de previsão. Enquanto isso, o interesse de compra renovado em torno do USD / JPY principal estendeu algum apoio para o tempo e limitou downslide mais adicional para o cruzamento de EUR / JPY, que anteriormente surged por 123.00 segurar e tocou seu nível mais alto desde 31 de maio. Níveis, fraqueza abaixo de 121.60 apoio imediato é susceptível de se estender para 121.15 suporte horizontal abaixo do qual o cruz corre o risco de cair de volta abaixo 120,00 marca psicológica. No lado de cima, 122.00 alça agora se torna imediata resistência, que se desmarcada poderia levantar a cruz para 122.50 resistência. Movimento sustentado acima do nível de 122.50 pode agora desencadear um novo ataque de curto-cobrindo e levantar a cruz de volta acima de 123.00 alça. 16:01 México Headline Inflação aumentou para 0,78 em novembro de 0,61 anterior 15:59 EUR / USD despenca para 1,0650 no pressor Draghis A moeda comum está agora sofrendo o tom dovish do presidente M. Draghi em sua conferência de imprensa, arrastando EUR / USD para O mid-1.0600s, baixos diários frescos. O par cedeu rapidamente o pico inicial para a banda 1.0880 / 90 após o anúncio de que o banco central vai modificar seu programa de QE a partir de abril de 2017. Na verdade, o presidente Draghi argumentou que o programa de compra de ativos Será alterado em janeiro, acrescentando que o banco vai comprar ativos abaixo da taxa de depósito, diminuindo o prazo de vencimento para 1 ano. O BCE reduzirá o seu ritmo de compras mensais para 60 mil milhões de euros, passando de 80 mil milhões de euros, a partir de Abril de 2017 e a sua execução até ao final de Dezembro de 2017, embora a sua extensão e tamanho possam ser modificados, se necessário. Draghi said that rates will remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time. The ECB Governing Council has also updated its forecasts for growth and inflation in the region, and it now sees 2016 GDP at 1.7, 2017 GDP at 1.7 and 2018 GDP at 1.6. Regarding inflation, HICP is seen rising at an annualized 0.2 this year, 1.3 in 2017 and 1.5 in 2018. As the press conference is under way, President Draghi has stressed that lsquotaperingrsquo has not been discussed (adding extra selling to EUR). EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now losing 0.90 at 1.0658 facing the next support at 1.0505 (2016 low Dec.5) ahead of 1.0456 (2015 low Mar.13). On the upside, the initial hurdle aligns at todayrsquos spike at 1.0873. 15:42 ECB will adjust APP in January - Draghi At his press conference today, ECB President Mari Draghi argued: ECB WILL BUY ASSETS YIELDING BELOW THE DEPOSIT RATE, DECREASING LOWER MATURITY BOUND TO 1 YEAR INTEREST RATES TO STAY AS ARE OR LOWER FOR EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME DATA SHOW CONTINUATION OF GROWTH TREND IN 4Q SEE MODERATE BUT FIRMING PACE OF RECOVERY SLUGGISH REFORM PACE, BALANCE SHEET ADJUSTMENT DAMPENS GROWTH ECONOMIC RISKS STILL TILTED TO DOWNSIDE ECB NOW SEES 2018 GDP AT 1.6 2017 GDP AT 1.7 AND 2016 GDP AT 1.7 ECB NOW SEES 2018 HICP AT 1.5 2017 HICP AT 1.3 AND 2016 HICP AT 0.2 OUTLOOK FOR HICP IS BROADLY UNCHANGED 15:38 EUR/USD tumbles to 1.0700 neighborhood as ECB presser gets underway The EUR/USD pair came under renewed selling pressure and extended its reversal from 3-week high, touched in the aftermath of ECB decision announcement. Currently trading around 1.0700 neighborhood, the pair plunged to 1.0700 handle after the opening remarks from ECB President Mario Draghi. Earlier, the pair had surged through 1.0800 handle and jumped to its highest level since Nov. 14 as the ECB announced to extend its current euro80bn asset purchase program only until April 2017. The pair, however, ran through fresh offers after further details revealed that the central bank will continue its QE program until the end of Dec. 2017, or beyond if necessary, albeit at a reduced pace of euro60bn per month. Investors will also scrutinize ECB39s update growth and inflation forecasts, which will also including its first outlook for 2019. Technical levels to watch A follow through selling pressure below 1.0700-1.0690 immediate support now seems to accelerate the slide towards 1.0650 intermediate support before the pair eventually break below 1.0600 handle and head towards testing its next major support near 1.0550 area. On the upside, renewed bullish momentum above 1.0800 handle might confront some resistance near session peak level around 1..0840 region above which the pair seems all set to aim towards testing 1.0900 round figure mark. 15:31 United States Initial Jobless Claims meets expectations (258K) in December 2 15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (YoY) increased to 3 in October from previous 2.8 15:30 Canada New Housing Price Index (MoM) came in at 0.4, above expectations (0.2) in October 15:30 United States Continuing Jobless Claims came in at 2.005M below forecasts (2.059M) in November 25 15:30 Canada Capacity Utilization increased to 81.9 in 3Q from previous 80 15:30 Canada Building Permits (MoM) came in at 8.7, above expectations (-0.7) in October 15:16 Canada Housing Starts s. a (YoY) registered at 184K, below expectations (191.2K) in November 15:11 USD/JPY leaps above 114.00, daily highs The greenback has quickly reverted the negative tone around the Japanese currency, lifting USD/JPY to fresh tops above the 114.00 mark. USD/JPY higher post-ECB The pair has rapidly advanced to levels beyond 114.00 the figure boosted by a bout of buying pressure around the buck after the European Central Bank left unchanged its monetary status quo at todayrsquos meeting. Sellers in EUR/USD have quickly stepped in after the pair spiked to the boundaries of 1.0880 after the ECB announced it will reduce its monthly pace of purchases of bonds to euro60 billion, starting in April 2017 and running until end of December 2017, all adding to the bid tone in USD and thus pushing spot higher. In the meantime, the pair stays well correlated to the performance of the yields of the US 10-year benchmark, while JPY speculative positioning has become net short for the first time this year during the week ended on November 29 as shown by the latest CFTC report. Data wise, US Initial Claims are only due later ahead of the Reuters/Michigan index due tomorrow. USD/JPY levels to consider As of writing the pair is up 0.15 at 113.93 and a break above 114.83 (high Dec.1) would open the door to 114.89 (high Feb.14) and finally 116.86 (78.6 Fibo of the 2016 drop). On the flip side, the next support lines up at 112.84 (low Dec.5) ahead of 111.85 (20-day sma) and then 111.32 (low Nov.28). 15:10 EUR/USD fades ECB-led knee-jerk spike beyond 1.0800 handle The EUR/USD pair faded ECB-decision knee-jerk bullish spike to fresh 3-week high level of 1.0838 and has now erased all of its daily gains, inching closer towards drifting into negative territory. Currently trading around mid-1.0700s, the pair initially surged through 1.0800 handle after ECB decided to leave its key benchmark interest rates unchanged and the current euro80bn QE program will be extended till only April 2017. The pair, however, quickly changed course after details emerged that the bond purchase program has been extended until the end of Dec 2017 but has been reduced euro60 billion. Focus would now turn to ECB39s update growth and inflation forecasts, including a first look at 2019. Also in focus would be ECB President Mario Draghi39s speech, which would add to the prevalent volatility around the shared currency. Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes, quotA critical one, however, is the 1.0840/60 region, where the pair bottomed for most of 2015 and current 2016, as moves below the level have proved short-lived. Should the price regain such level, the risk of an upward extension towards 1.0900/50.quot quotThe immediate support on the other hand, is the 1.0740 level, with a break below it exposing 1.0690, the 23.6 retracement of the same decline. Below it, the pair will likely resume its bearish trend, furthermore, as market39s attention will flip towards the FED39s meeting next week with 1.0640 and 1.0570 as the next supports to consider. quot 15:01 ECB introduces the t-word - ING Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING, notes that the ECB just surprised by announcing that they will extend their QE programme by at least nine months, though at a smaller pace. ldquoCurrently at EUR 80bn per month, the ECB will cut the monthly purchases down to EUR 60bn per month from April 2017 to at least December 2017. Even without calling this tapering, the ECB just announced tapering. It is the combination of extending and tapering that we thought would not yet happen as it could risk an unwarranted increase in bond yields. A compromise resulting from increased pressure from the ECB hawks to stop or at least reduce QE. Whether it was a wise decision or whether the ECB could end up in a taper tantrum like the Fed did in 2013 remains to be seen. rdquo ldquoWe will now have to wait until the press conference at 2.30pm CET to get more details of the ECBrsquos decision. rdquo 15:00 ECB leaves rates unchanged At todayrsquos meeting, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank has decided to leave the interest rate on the main refinancing operations at 0.00, the interest rate on the marginal lending facility at 0.25 and the deposit facility at -0.40, broadly in line with prior surveys. 14:58 EUR/JPY surges through 123.00 handle retreats after ECB decision The EUR/JPY cross broke through recent consolidation phase and surged through 123.00 handle to hit a fresh six month high after ECB decision . The cross, however, quickly retreated from higher levels and is currently trading back below 123.00 mark. The shared currency surged across the board after ECBrsquos governing council decided to leave interest rates unchanged and extend its current euro80bn QE program only until April 2017, which would then be reduced to euro60bn until the end of Dec 2017, or beyond if necessary. Market participants were expecting the central bank to extend its asset purchase program for at-least six month. Next in focus would be ECB President Mario Draghirsquos press conference, where investors will now look for further clues over an early tapering, which if hinted should trigger a further knee-jerk bullish reaction for the shared currency. The ECB will also publish updated growth and inflation forecasts, including a first look at 2019. Technical levels to watch Sustained momentum above 122.90-123.00 immediate resistance has the potential to continue boosting the pair further towards 123.75 resistance area with 123.50-55 region acting as intermediate resistance. On the downside, a follow through selling pressure below 122.00-121.90 immediate support is likely to accelerate the slide towards 121.25 intermediate support before the pair breaks through 121.00 handle and aim towards testing its next major support near 120.15-10 region. 14:57 ECB reduces asset purchases to 60 billion from April The European Central Bank left unchanged its monetary policy stance at todayrsquos meeting, matching the broader consensus. The Governing Council added that starting in April, the monthly pace of bond purchases will be reduced to euro60 billion until end of December 2017, although the central bank could increase the duration/size of the programme if necessary, The GC also sees a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation consistent with its inflation aim. The ECB reiterated that rates will remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases. 14:55 CAD: Focus on the housing data TDS Research Team at TDS, suggests that the Canadarsquos economic data will focus largely on housing, with housing starts, building permits and the new housing price index all on the calendar. ldquoNovember housing starts are not expected to drift much from the 193k pace last month TD looks for starts to edge slightly lower to 190k while the market does not expect any change. October building permits will be release shortly afterwards and are expected by the market to rebound by 2.0 m/m following a 7.0 pullback in September. We will keep an eye on single-unit residential permits, which reached a six-year high last month and sit only a few percent shy of all-time highs. New home prices for October will be released simultaneously and are expected by the market to increase by 0.2 m/m. Q3 capacity utilization is the only non-housing item on the agenda and is expected to rebound to 81.5 for a full correction from the dip in Q2.rdquo ldquo US . Initial jobless claims are the only economic release and are expected to pullback after last weekrsquos jump to 268k. TD looks for a 259k print, in line with the 257k consensus. rdquo 14:52 ECB inflation projections: Important but not crucial Rabobank Research Team at Rabobank, expects that the ECBrsquos inflation projections (with 2019 featuring for the first time in this projection round) are likely to show that inflation will creep towards the ECBrsquos self-imposed target of ldquoclose to but below 2rdquo. ldquoHowever, given the uncertain political situation and the subdued level of underlying inflation and wages, we believe the ECB cannot take these projections for granted. The disappointing track-record of inflation projections over the past few years only strengthens this view. rdquo ldquoAlthough a 3 month extension to the asset purchase program would in principle be sufficient to take us beyond the French elections (a clear political risk event), more time is likely to be required before the ECB can argue safely that underlying inflation indicators are moving into the right direction (and, in fact, even this is still quite uncertain).rdquo ldquoTherefore, we expect Mr. Draghi to announce a 6 months extension of the purchase program, so that it should end in September 2017 (at the earliest).rdquo 14:48 EUR/USD jumps to 1.0850 on steady ECB The single currency accelerated the uspide to the 1.0850 area vs. the greenback following the ECB interest rate decision. EUR/USD within range ahead of Draghi Spot pushed higher after the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left its monetary stance unchanged at todayrsquos meeting. In fact, the central bank left the interest rate on the main refinancing operations at 0.00, the interest rate on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility at 0.25 and -0.40, respectively. Looking ahead, investors will closely follow the usual press conference by President Draghi (1300GMT), with the current QE programme and the possibility of tapering taking centre stage along with updated revisions of employment, growth and inflation figures in the region for the upcoming years. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.90 at 1.0852 and a break above 1.0907 (50 of the November drop) would target 1.0919 (55-day sma). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.0696 (low Dec.7) followed by 1.0669 (20-day sma) and finally 1.0503 (2016 low Dec.5). 14:47 ECB to announce a future reduction in the QE run rate - BNPP Research Team at BNP Paribas expects the ECB to announce a future reduction in the QE run rate in its meet today. ldquoThe main focus next week will be the European Central Bank policy meeting (8 December). Our economistsrsquo base case remains that the ECB will extend its asset purchase programme from March by six months, but at a reduced run rate of EUR 60bn per month. A result in line with our expectation ndash an extension at a reduced pace ndash has the potential to be moderately bullish for the EUR, although President Mario Draghirsquos accompanying message justifying the run rate reduction will also be important. rdquo 14:46 European Monetary Union ECB deposit rate decision meets forecasts (-0.4) 14:46 European Monetary Union ECB Interest Rate Decision meets expectations (0) in December 8 14:42 Italy: Political situation is far from clear - BBH Research Team at BBH, notes that the Italy39s political situation is far from clear and a new government will be formed, and it still looks possible that Renzi, the head of the largest party, is a likely candidate. ldquoThe state of the election law is problematic. The Constitutional Court will not review the electoral reforms for the lower chamber until January 24. There is no electoral law for the upper house. And there is no returning to the previous law, which was ruled unconstitutional. rdquo ldquoMany are still talking about the referendum results as being anti-establishment. Some observers seem to think the Five Star Movement will be swept into power and call for an immediate referendum on EMU membership. Leave aside the fact that polls consistently show that the vast majority of Italians want the euro instead of a new lira the Constitutional Court has ruled out referendums on international treaties. rdquo ldquoLate yesterday, Moody39s cut the outlook on Italy39s credit rating to negative from stable. It is a Baa2 credit, according to Moody39s, which is two notches into investment grade. SampP has it lower at BBB - and Fitch has it a step higher at BBB. A one step cut by Moody39s would have little consequence. rdquo ldquoDBRS is the one to watch. It gives Italy an A rating. It is under review, which after postponing for the referendum, the agency will make a decision by early February. It previously was most concerned about growth but recognizes that recent developments are credit negative. The DBRS rating is important because the most optimistic rating agency is the one the ECB pays the most attention to in setting the haircut on collateral. If DBRS cuts Italy39s rating, the haircut will be larger. rdquo ldquoThe Financial Times lead story is that Italy has requested more time for Monte Paschi to complete its capital raising exercise, arguing that the referendum complicated matters. Meanwhile, Italian bank shares are gaining for the third session. It is up nearly 2 after yesterday39s almost 4.5 advance and Tuesday39s nearly 9 charge. Italy39s 10-year sovereign bond is underperforming with a six bp rise in yields. However, on two-year money, Italy is outperforming the core and other periphery countries today. rdquo 14:36 ECB: What to expect from the December meet - Natixis Research Team at Natixis suggests that todayrsquos ECB meeting is for sure one of the main events of the week and ahead of the meeting, Natixis offer their views on the possible announcements that will draft the short term path of the Eurozone monetary policy. ldquoGlobally, we forecast: The ECB to extend the QE programme by 6 months until September 2017 and to maintain the pace of monthly purchases of euro80 bn. (ii) We think it is also very likely that the ECB will make changes to the parameters of the QE programme. The ECB would react to adverse market reactions in the aftermath to the referendum in Italy by temporarily buying more Italian bonds within the QE framework (but we do not expect that specific measures on this last point will be announced) In our view, inflation forecasts will be revised upward, with headline inflation now expected to average 1.3 in 2017 (vs. 1.2 in Sep.), 1.7 in 2018 (vs. 1.6 in Sep.) and 1.8 in 2019. Growth forecasts are unlikely to change much. rdquo 14:32 China: Smaller than expected trade surplus - BBH Research Team at BBH notes that the China reported its November trade figures and the surplus was smaller than expected at 44.6 bln (compared with 49.06 bln in October). ldquoBoth exports and imports rose. Exports rose for the first time in seven months on a year-over-year basis, even if just barely (0.1 in dollar terms). Imports rose 6.7, the most in two years. Imports of copper, iron ore and coal rose. The impact on either the dollar-bloc currencies, like the Australian dollar or metal producers like the South African rand, has been muted. rdquo ldquoSince the end of July 2015, the yuan has fallen 9.7 against the US dollar. This may help Chinese exports, especially as China continues to evolve away from simple assembly work and toward more value added. However, as many other countries have found, the linkage between currency valuation and exports is far from simple or straightforward. There is little substitute for stronger demand. rdquo 14:28 ECB to extend the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by six to nine months - SocGen In its December 2016 meet, Research Team at Societe Generale expects the ECB to extend the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by six to nine months. ldquoA key question will be whether the communication stresses only that the asset purchases will continue until this new end-date (as we think), or includes the monthly volume of euro80bn until the new end-date. As this is forward guidance, the ECB can still adjust its actions as it sees fit depending on data. Current levels of uncertainty may argue in favour of unchanged monthly purchases, but then likely also a shorter extension. rdquo ldquoIn December 2016, we also expect an increase in the issue limit to 50, while maintaining the issuer limit at 33, to allow for a smooth implementation and make room for additional easing if needed. rdquo ldquoWe also expect the Eurosystem staff inflation forecast for 2019, due in December, to be close to the target (2018 is currently at 1.6).rdquo ldquoIn March 2017, we expect a first reduction in the monthly asset purchases by euro10bn with the ECB increasingly focusing on the continuous positive impact from the expanded balance sheet and excess liquidity. rdquo ldquoWe expect the inflation outlook, confidence in the effectiveness of past measures, rising concerns over adverse side-effects from UMP and the medium term scarcity of suitable assets to be the key underlying reasons for starting tapering. rdquo ldquoWe expect a TLTRO 3 to be offered as of June 2017 to support a still-lacklustre recovery in investment. This could counter negative market effects from tapering by adding some euro200bn to ECBrsquos balance sheet until March 2018. Additional TLTROs thereafter are possible depending on the economic outlook while, importantly, including mortgage loans could be a way of boosting volumes significantly. rdquo 14:24 Japan revised Q3 GDP growth lower to 0.3 rather than 0.5 - BBH Research Team at BBH, notes that the Japan revised Q3 GDP growth unexpectedly lower to 0.3 rather than 0.5, which reduces the annualized rate to 1.3 from 2.2. ldquoBusiness spending and inventories drove the revisions, while the upticks in consumption were insufficient to do more than blunt some of the impacts. The GDP deflator was revised to minus 0.2 from minus 0.1, leaving Japan as one of the few countries still experiencing deflation. rdquo ldquoAt the same time, Japan adopted the best practices in terms of GDP calculation (which other countries such as the US and many European countries have already done). Among other things, it means that research and development expenditures are counted as capital formation rather than an intermediate input. This means that at the end of last year, the Japanese economy was about 6.5 larger (JPY532.2 trillion instead of JPY500.6 trillion) than previously measured. The dollar held above its week39s low against the yen ( JPY112.90). A move now back above JPY113.60-JPY113.80 would likely help stabilize the dollar39s tone. rdquo 14:21 ECB: Extension of QE programme likely to put downside pressure on euro area yields - Nomura Research Team at Nomura, expects the ECB to extend its QE programme by another six months, without reducing the pace of monthly purchases. ldquo The extension is likely to put downside pressure on euro area yields and peripheral spreads, while risk sentiment is likely to be supported somewhat too. A decision to purchase more peripheral bonds would accelerate euro area investorsrsquo foreign bond investment by improving risk sentiment. If we assume a 10bp decline in euro area yields and 0.5 standard deviations of risk-on movement (higher equity prices, lower volatility, and narrower peripheral spreads) occur, foreign bond investment by euro area investors could increase by nearly EUR10bn per month from end-October (including the Trump effect).rdquo ldquoIn contrast, an immediate tapering decision or a step toward tapering (not our central case scenario) could slow euro area investorsrsquo foreign bond investment. A tapering announcement would likely widen peripheral spreads and hurt risk sentiment. Higher euro area yields would also weaken foreign bond investment. rdquo 14:16 EUR: Draghi has no important surprises to unveil - BBH The euro39s recovery ahead of the ECB meeting, seems to leave it vulnerable to a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of activity, suggests Research Team at BBH. ldquoPerhaps the rumor is that Draghi has no important surprises to unveil. Nearly everyone is looking for an extension of the asset purchases, some operational adjustment to allow it to reduce the risks of scarcity, and some measures to make it securities lending program more user-friendly. Also fitting in with a pullback in the euro could be an increase in the US premium over Germany on two-year money for the first time in five sessions today. Initial support for the euro may be pegged in the 1.0740-1.0760 area, with a break sending the single currency back toward 1.07.rdquo 14:16 WTI regains 50.00 and beyond, OPEC eyed Crude oil prices have reverted the initial negative mood and have now lifted the West Texas Intermediate back above the 50.00 mark on Thursday, up nearly 1. WTI cautious ahead of OPEC/non-OPEC meeting Prices for the WTI have recovered the smile today amidst a generalized selling bias around the greenback. However, scepticism regarding the real effects on both prices and the supply glut of the recent deal to limit the oil output remains on the rise among traders, while jitters on the persistent oversupply seem to have re-emerged. In the meantime, OPEC and non-OPEC producers will meet over the weekend in order to discuss output cuts by non-OPEC countries. Weighting on sentiment as well, yesterdayrsquos large build in US supplies in Cushing have offset the decrease in crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA. WTI levels to consider At the moment the barrel of WTI is gaining 1.02 at 50.28 and a breakout of 52.42 (2016 high Dec.5) would aim for 53.89 (low Jul.10 2015) and then 62.58 (high May 6 2015). On the other hand, the immediate support lines up at 49.72 (low Dec.7) followed by 48.03 (55-day sma) and finally 47.70 (20-day sma). 14:13 USD/JPY struggling to gain fresh traction, ECB in focus The USD/JPY pair failed to build on to its recovery move witnessed during early European session and maintained its offered tone within a narrow trading range. Currently trading around 113.40-50 band, the pair now seems to be heading back towards the lower end of daily trading range amid some renewed greenback selling pressure emerging in the past couple of hours. Investors seem to be adjusting their positions ahead of key central bank monetary policy meetings, which could trigger a fresh bout of volatility in global financial markets and is seen supporting to the Japanese Yen39s safe-haven appeal. In a short while from now, ECB will announce its monetary policy decision and is expected to extend its QE program beyond the current end date of March 2017. Market participants, however, remain divided over the period of extension and are hence, positioning themselves for any possible adverse reaction. Meanwhile, December Fed rate-hike decision is nearly fully priced-in and hence, focus would be on the 39dot plots39 that would help investor evaluate possibilities, and timing of next Fed rate-hike action, eventually determining the next leg of directional move for the major. Later during NA session, the usual weekly jobless claims data from the US will be looked upon in order to grab some short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch Bulls would be disheartened if the pair fails to hold session low support near 113.15 region below which the pair seems to break through 113.00 round figure mark and head towards testing weekly lows support near 112.85 area. On the upside, sustained momentum above 113.50 level could get extended towards session peak resistance near 113.85 level en-route 114.00 round figure mark. 14:13 ECB to announce measures to prolong its asset purchase program - Scotiabank Freacutedeacuteric Precirctet, Research Analyst at Scotiabank, expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce measures to prolong its asset purchase program of euro80bn per month for at least 6 months beyond its current end date of March 2017. ldquoThis decision will be taken despite the fact that, for the first time in many quarters, the Eurozone growth scenario could be slightly revised up in the ECB staffrsquos December macroeconomic projections report. Indeed, the lack of any clear improvement in core inflation and the risk of a premature retightening in financial conditions following the recent rise in interest rates would, in our view, be strong arguments behind this decision. rdquo ldquoGrowth: Despite the adverse impact of higher interest rates and higher oil prices on householdsrsquo purchasing power, signs of strengthening global demand as seen by the sharp rise in the global PMI manufacturing index and the positive impact of a weaker EUR suggest that Eurozone real GDP growth could be upwardly revised to around 1.7 y/y over the medium term. rdquo ldquoInflation: Higher oil prices also strengthen the case for stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation next year. Beyond this, however, weak developments in core inflation could force the ECB to remain cautious. As is traditionally the case, the ECB will nonetheless deliver or communicate an inflation forecast that moves back towards the ECBrsquos price target of ldquobelow but close to 2.0rdquo over a 2ndash3 year horizon. rdquo 14:08 ECB Preview: Possible QE extension, given a lack of alternatives HSBC Research Team at HSBC expects the ECB to announce another six-month extension of QE at EUR80bn per month at its 8 December meeting. ldquoDue to the recent rise in bond yields, this may only require increasing to 50 (from 33) the limit for bonds without Collective Action Clauses (CACs). Nothing is certain, however, and there is a risk the ECB opts to wait a few months before extending, announces a shorter extension, or opts for another form of monetary stimulus altogether, although we think this is unlikely. rdquo ldquoIn our view, the underlying inflation situation warrants further easing. Despite a waning drag from energy prices, core and services inflation remain muted and we see few signs of emerging pressures in the key drivers of inflation (wages, pricing behaviour of firms). We think financial markets got carried away about the European re-inflationary consequences of the US election result, as reflected by the rise in 5yr-5yr forward Eurozone inflation swap rates. rdquo 14:03 FX reserves remain ample Chinas SAFE Chinese regulator SAFE argued that FDI inflows stayed basically the same during the last month when compared with Octoberrsquos figures. SAFE added that in general the financial system fundamentals remained stable. 13:37 ECB Preview: 13 Major Banks expectations from December meet As we heading towards the much awaited ECBrsquos December meeting, following are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 13 major banks. Surprisingly all the bank expect the ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme and maintain monthly purchases at EUR80bn while the deposit rate will likely remain at minus 40 bp . We expect the ECB to announce another six-month extension of QE at EUR80bn per month at its 8 December meeting. Due to the recent rise in bond yields, this may only require increasing to 50 (from 33) the limit for bonds without Collective Action Clauses (CACs). Nothing is certain, however, and there is a risk the ECB opts to wait a few months before extending, announces a shorter extension, or opts for another form of monetary stimulus altogether, although we think this is unlikely. In December 2016, we expect the ECB to extend the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) by six to nine months. A key question will be whether the communication stresses only that the asset purchases will continue until this new end-date (as we think), or includes the monthly volume of euro80bn until the new end-date. As this is forward guidance, the ECB can still adjust its actions as it sees fit depending on data. Current levels of uncertainty may argue in favour of unchanged monthly purchases, but then likely also a shorter extension. ECB President Mario Draghirsquos challenge at todayrsquos Council Meeting is to broker a deal whereby he doesnrsquot disappoint market expectations of an extension of the current (EUR80bn per month) asset purchase programme, while satisfying the demands of the more hawkish elements in the Council who want the pace of asset purchases to slow given the prospect of rising (but still low) core inflation and steady growth. We expect the ECB to announce an extension to their QE programme when they convene next Thursday. The growth outlook for 2017 is challenging and, energy price developments aside, inflationary pressures remain weak. The exact form of an extension will depend on the outcome of the review of the asset purchase programme commissioned in September. However, we continue to see some watering down of the deposit rate floor (by allowing some purchases below the -40bp deposit rate whilst keeping the overall portfolio yield above that level) and allowing purchases to deviate from the capital key as the main changes necessary to allow purchases to continue beyond their current planned expiry in March. We expect the ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme and maintain monthly purchases at EUR80bn. This is probably close to market expectations given a recent Bloomberg survey, where 64 of analysts expected a QE extension with the current pace kept unchanged. The market focus has over the past couple of months been focused on the risk of 39tapering39 or 39end of easing39. However, in our view, that is premature and we do not expect the ECB to announce any kind of tapering at this meeting. Instead, focus is likely to be on potential changes to QE buying restrictions like the issuer limit, buying below the deposit floor at -0.40 or potential deviations to the capital key. Note that we do not in fact expect any of these changes to take place. Finally, the fixed income market will scrutinise if we see any changes to the securities lending programme (repo facilities) by the Bundesbank given the 39expensive bunds39 in the repo market. The market is optimistic that the ECB will extend its quantitative easing programme at current levels for a further six months. There is a real risk of unpleasantness in European bond, equity and FX markets if Draghi doesnrsquot at least meet expectations. However, as well as the general emerging political concern about unintended consequences of QE for bank profitability and income inequality, there are undeniable political aspects to the fact that through its bond-buying the ECB is propping up the bond markets ndash and hence banks ndash of some countries with clearly unsustainable debt loads. The longer the charade continues, the larger the eventual bill for the European (read German) taxpayer, via ECB/central bank Target 2 settlement balances. Has the ECB, having done ldquowhatever it takesrdquo for years now, averted catastrophe or merely deferred it It seems unlikely that Draghi will be willing to fold his hand today and find out. Thatrsquos certainly the marketrsquos bet. ECB President Draghi has a tricky task today with the economic data from the euro-zone indicating a pick-up in activity. Last week, the euro-zone unemployment rate fell to 9.8 - an important development given it is the lowest level since July 2009 before the debt crisis in the euro-zone. The 9.8 level also indicates that the ECB is being too pessimistic itself. The current ECB forecast for unemployment in 2017 is 9.9 and 9.6 in 2018. The ECB is set to revise those forecasts lower tomorrow. But while the euro may be deriving support from some signs of cyclical improvement for the euro-zone economy which may curtail the dovishness of the ECB tomorrow, the return of fragmentation within the euro-zone financial markets, if sustained will be a far more important driver for the euro going forward. The need for the ECB to announce an extension in QE beyond March 2017 seems obvious to us. Even though the cyclical picture for the euro-zone economy looks to be improving, more serious problems related to the cohesion of the single market could be brewing. Given the escalated political uncertainty, now doesnrsquot appear to be the time to signal an end of ECB support that is clearly helping to stabilise financial markets in the euro-zone. We do not expect the resilience of the euro to persist whatever the outcome of the ECB meeting tomorrow. rdquo The big event ahead of next weekrsquos FOMC meeting is this week39s ECB meeting. This is a live meeting in the sense that policy announcements are expected to be forthcoming. What is at stake is not interest rates. The deposit rate will likely remain at minus 40 bp. Instead, decisions are needed about its asset purchases. First is extending the program past the current soft end-of-March time frame. Most are focusing on a six-month extension, mostly on the basis that that was the length of time of the previous extension. There is some speculation that the ECB could scale back the amount of monthly purchases (currently 80 bln euros). If this does materialize, we suspect it may be an operational tweak in the covered bond purchases. Second is adjusting the decision-making rules about the purchases. We suspect the ECB can modify some of its own rules, like the individual issue cap. The ECB may also apply the minus 40 bp floor on the portfolio level rather than the individual security level, and this too would overcome or minimize the scarcity operational challenge. Third is measures relating to the securities lending program to address the stress in the repo market. There has been some speculation that the ECB will take measures to improve its ability to provide the securities it buys back to the market. Our baseline remains a six-month extension to the programme duration that would take it to at least September 2017. We also expect the ECB to maintain the current pace of purchases of EUR 80bn per month, although with balance of risks skewed towards an extension but at a slower pace. In terms of amendments to the technical parameters of the programme, we expect the ECB to announce an increase in the ISIN and issuer limits for non-CAC bonds from the current 33 to 45. The ECB might also alleviate the deposit rate constraint but we see this as less strategic for the smooth implementation of the programme at the current level of rates. Finally, we do not expect any changes in either of the policy rates at the December meeting. We look for the ECB to say that it will conduct asset purchases at least until Dec 2017, but at an euro80bn/month pace only through June 2017, leaving the door open for tapering beginning in mid-year. Markets will also be eyeing updated macro forecasts, and especially the HICP forecast for 2019, as the ECB has moved forward introducing its 2019 forecasts by 3 months, likely for a good reason. We look for HICP at 1.8 in 2019, helping the ECB to justify an eventual move to tapering. However, we look for his meeting to merely open the door to tapering, and in fact for Draghi to likely go to pains to avoid using the word ldquotaperrdquo altogether and stick to language more in line with just adjusting the amount of monthly purchases. Overall we look for Draghi to ever so gently open the door to tapering, boosting the EUR by around 1, and on the rates side we like German 2s5s flatteners and 5s30s steepeners, as well as 10y gilt-bund tighteners Expect the ECB to announce another extension to its monthly asset purchases when it meets today. We look for the timeframe to be extended six months to September 2017, but there are reports that it wonrsquot be that simple. Policymakers are considering a longer timeframe (beyond six months) but with fewer bond buys per month (so, less than euro80 bln, or possibly a return to euro60 bln). This will be the ECBrsquos signal to financial markets that the QE program has a limited shelf life and it wonrsquot hurt that Germany would give it the nod. We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to announce measures to prolong its asset purchase program of euro80bn per month for at least 6 months beyond its current end date of March 2017 following the ECBrsquos next meeting on December 8th. This decision will be taken despite the fact that, for the first time in many quarters, the Eurozone growth scenario could be slightly revised up in the ECB staffrsquos December macroeconomic projections report. Indeed, the lack of any clear improvement in core inflation and the risk of a premature retightening in financial conditions following the recent rise in interest rates would, in our view, be strong arguments behind this decision. We forecast: (i) The ECB to extend the QE programme by 6 months until September 2017 and to maintain the pace of monthly purchases of euro80 bn. (ii) We think it is also very likely that the ECB will make changes to the parameters of the QE programme. (iii) The ECB would react to adverse market reactions in the aftermath to the referendum in Italy by temporarily buying more Italian bonds within the QE framework (but we do not expect that specific measures on this last point will be announced) (iv) In our view, inflation forecasts will be revised upward, with headline inflation now expected to average 1.3 in 2017 (vs. 1.2 in Sep.), 1.7 in 2018 (vs. 1.6 in Sep.) and 1.8 in 2019. (v) Growth forecasts are unlikely to change much. We believe that the ECB will announce three important decisions after Thursdayrsquos Governing Council meeting: i) an extension of QE beyond its official end-date of March 2017 (our base case is by 6 months) ii) the parameter adjustments necessary to ensure that the purchase program can continue without being hampered by limited availability of eligible assets (our base case is a combination of an increase in the non-CAC issue limit and a removal of the deposit rate threshold), and iii) offering clearer guidance with respect to its intentions in the medium-term (implying the prospect of a data-dependent wind down of its purchases beyond September 2017, but wrapped in a softly enough cloth to prevent markets from getting spooked). So finding the right balance in this message to the market is key. Therefore we expect the ECB to emphasize that the program cannot continue forever, that it will review its options during the course of the program but that any adjustment after September 2017 will be data-dependent. Click here to read more about the ECB Interest Rate Decision from our in house Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled ldquo ECB Preview: between a rock and a hard place rdquo 13:36 AUD/USD extending its sideline theme near term UOB According to FX Strategists at UOB Group, the Aussie dollar remains poised for further rangebound between 0.7350 and 0.7550 for the next 1-3 weeks. ldquo AUD staged a solid rebound after touching a low of 0.7417 yesterday. Upward momentum is relatively strong and a break above the recent high at 0.7495/00 seems likely. That said, the next level at 0.7550 is a major resistance and the odds for a move this level are not highrdquo. ldquoThere is not much to add as AUD continues to trade in a relatively muted manner. The neutral phase that started about 2 weeks ago is still in place and we continue to expect range trading, likely within a 0.7350/0.7550 rangerdquo. 13:26 USD/CAD inching towards 1.3200 handle After a brief pause on Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair resumed with its near-term downward trajectory and dropped to seven-week low on Thursday. Currently trading around 1.3210 region, the lowest level since Oct. 20, the greenback39s weekly corrective slide, with the overall US Dollar Index now quoting below 100.00 psychological, and is seen weighing on the pair. Moreover, the prevalent bullish sentiment surrounding oil prices is further boosting demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie, and exerting additional selling pressure around the major. At the time of reporting, WTI crude oil traded with gains of over 1.0 and has now regained control over the critical 50.00 psychological mark. Meanwhile, BoC39s decision to leave its monetary policy unchanged, at its meeting on Wednesday, is also seen benefitting the Canadian Dollar, while mounting expectations for an upcoming Fed rate-hike has failed to lend any support to the major. Traders now look forward to Canadian housing starts and building permits data, and weekly jobless claims from the US, later during NA session, for short-term trading opportunities. Technical levels to watch On the immediate downside, the pair is expected to find support near 1.3200-1.3295 region (100-day SMA) below which the slide could further get extended towards the next support near 1.3150 level. On the upside, first resistance is seen near at 1.3235 (session peak) above which the pair is expected to dart towards 1.3270-80 strong horizontal resistance. 13:15 EUR/GBP under pressure near 0.8500, ECB eyed EUR/GBP has faded the initial spike to the vicinity of the 0.8540 area and is now deflating to the 0.8500 neighbourhood. EUR/GBP looks to the ECB The European cross is retreating for the first time this week, eroding part of the strong rebound from 5-month lows around the 0.8300 handle seen on Monday to yesterdayrsquos highs in the mid-0.8500s. The persistent resilience around the British Pound has prompted the cross to deflate from earlier tops, although the bid tone surrounding the shared currency is expected to limit the downside. Ahead in the session, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting, with consensus seeing the central bank extending its bond-buying programme further beyond March 2017 albeit keeping unchanged the monthly purchases, currently at euro80 billion. In addition, market participants will closely follow the statement and press conference by President Draghi looking for clues on a probable QE tapering in the longer run. The cross is now retreating 0.16 at 0.8504 facing the next support at 0.8298 (low Dec.5) followed by 0.8295 (200-day sma) and then 0.8248 (low Jul.14). On the other side, a surpass of 0.8553 (high Dec.7) followed by 0.8582 (high Nov.30) and finally 0.8637 (100-day sma). 13:01 USD/NOK gaining upside traction USD/NOK declines over recent weeks appear to have been temporarily stalled in the face of a bullish development. The MACD line is tracing higher lows, when compared to recent sessions. Meanwhile, the meandering of the price structure is carving lower lows, which should give strong indication that we have seen the bottom on this pair for the time being. 13:01 Ireland HICP (MoM) up to -0.1 in November from previous -0.4 13:01 Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) rose from previous -0.5to -0.1 in November 13:01 Ireland HICP (YoY) up to -0.2 in November from previous -0.4 13:01 Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to -0.1 in November from previous -0.3 12:55 USD/JPY poised for further rangebound UOB As suggested by FX Strategists at UOB Group, USD/JPY keeps its consolidative theme unchanged in the near term, likely between 111.50 and 115.00. ldquoThe 113.38/114.39 range yesterday was relatively close to our expected sideways trading range of 113.50/114.50. However, the rather weak daily closing suggests immediate downward pressure even though any decline is unlikely to have enough momentum to break below the 113.10 supportrdquo. ldquoWhile the outlook for USD is deemed as neutral, the nearterm bias is tilted to the downside. That said, any weakness is expected to find solid support near last weekrsquos low at 111.50. Strong resistance is at 114.40 followed by the key level of 115.00rdquo. 12:55 GBP/USD taps 1.2700 handle ahead of ECB decision The GBP/USD pair extended recovery momentum from yesterday39s weekly low and retested 1.2700 handle ahead of ECB monetary policy decision. Currently hovering around 1.2700 handle, spot accelerated up-move and reversed all of its losses recorded in the previous trading session amid renewed greenback weakness. In fact the overall US Dollar Index extended its weekly corrective slide and has now broken below 100.00 mark. Market players now eagerly await for arguably this week39s top event risk, ECB monetary policy decision . which would drive broader market risk sentiment and the spillover effect would provide fresh impetus for the major. Later during NA session, the usual weekly jobless claims data would also be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities, but is likely to be overshadowed by ECB-led volatility in the FX market. Technical levels to watch A follow through buying interest above 1.2700 handle has the potential to continue boosting the pair initially towards 1.2730 horizontal resistance en-route two-month highs resistance near 1.2775 region, also coinciding with 100-day SMA. On the downside, renewed weakness below 1.2670-65 area is likely to drag the pair back towards 1.2600 handle with 1.2625 level acting as intermediate support. 12:42 ECB meeting is main risk for higher FX volatility heading into year-end - MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, expects that the ECB policy meeting will be important for the FX market as it will provide an update on the outlook for their QE programme. ldquoWe see risks as skewed to the upside for the euro from todayrsquos ECB policy meeting. The euro could potentially strengthen materially if the ECB tapers QE prematurely lowering inflation expectations in the euro-zone and lifting real yields. It would also risk throwing more fuel on the fire ahead the upcoming elections in Europe thereby increasing the risk of sharper bond market sell offs. rdquo ldquoRecent speculation that Italy is heading towards early elections after the constitutional court has ruled on the updated electoral law on the 24th January could potentially heighten European political risk further in the first half of next year. After taking these risks into consideration, we believe that the ECB should hold off from tapering QE until later next year. If we are correct, a continuation of ECB policy status quo should help to keep the euro weak. rdquo 12:37 BoC: Still many concerns - Westpac Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the BoC continues to run with a neutral bias though the statement still betrays a central bank with many concerns, chief among those weak business investment and non-energy exports. ldquoRecent data will do nothing to dispel the sluggish picture of late either. But the outlook is stronger than the BoC believes. rdquo ldquoA genuine floor for Canadarsquos terms of trade appears to be in place thanks to the OPEC deal. The Trudeau/Trump one-two fiscal punch tilts the risks for Canadarsquos economy in 2017 to the upside too. Few economies are easing fiscal policy like Canada. Fewer still can claim that their major trading partner is easing fiscal policy too. rdquo ldquoA test of 1.30 into yearrsquos end and early 2017 looks more compelling than 1.35/36.rdquo 12:33 USD: Initial Trump rally just pausing for breath heading into year-end - MUFG The US dollar has remained on the defensive in the Asian trading as it continues to give back some of its strong gains in recent months notes Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG. ldquoEmerging market currencies and the yen which were hit hardest by Donald Trumprsquos election victory are outperforming. US yields have lost some upward momentum in the near-term as evident by the 10- year US Treasury bond yield failing to break above key resistance between 2.4 and 2.5 which is encouraging a partial reversal of recent US dollar strength. At the current juncture, we continue to believe that it is just a temporary correction with no fundamental justification for a sustained reversal of US dollar strength. rdquo ldquoThe last two remaining event risks heading into year-end are todayrsquos ECB meeting and next weekrsquos FOMC meeting. We are not expecting any significant policy surprises which should encourage a further decline in market volatility and paring of long US dollar positioning heading into year-end thereby creating favourable conditions for emerging market currencies to rebound further. However such favourable conditions are unlikely to persist beyond the near-term. rdquo ldquoWe believe that it will likely be too soon for the Fed to signal next week that it plans to raise rates more quickly in the coming years. The Fed will be cautious about updating their economic forecasts until they have greater clarity over the outlook for fiscal policy under President elect Donald Trump. As a result, we do not expect a material upward revision to the Fedrsquos dot plot forecasts at next weekrsquos policy meeting. It is more likely to stick for now with their plans for two rate hikes next year and three in 2018.rdquo ldquoThe US interest rate market looks reasonably priced for the potential for two rates hikes next year which could be one reason that the move higher in US yields and the US dollar has lost some momentum in the near-term. However, we continue to see scope for US short rates to move higher next year providing more support for a stronger US dollar as the market still doubts that the Fed will be able to raise rates much further in 2018. We estimate that there are only three to four hikes discounted during 2017 and 2018 which appears too modest if fiscal policy is loosened significantly. In these circumstances, the US dollar is likely to remain a buy on dips in the near-term as the adjustment higher is not yet complete. rdquo 12:33 WTI attempts tepid-bounce, around 50 mark Oil futures on NYMEX stalled 2-day declines and now attempt a tepid-bounce as traders cheer bigger-than expected drop in the US stockpiles, as confirmed by the EIA report. Oil: Attention turns to OPEC, non-OPEC meeting Currently WTI advances 0.60 to 50.07, having posted daily highs at 50.14 some minutes ago. Oil prices now trade with moderate gains, after having dropped to a weekrsquos low in wake of concerns whether an output deal likely to be reached between OPEC and non-OPEC members on Saturday will help resolve persistent global oversupply woes. Moreover, the recovery is also backed by bullish EIA crude inventories report, which showed that the US crude oil inventories dropped 2.4 million barrels in the week to Dec. 2. Markets had predicted a draw of 1 million barrel. Further, a broadly weaker US dollar on the profit-taking ahead of the ECB event, also adds to the positive tone seen in oil prices. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated oil cheaper for foreign buyers. WTI technical levels A break above 50.79 (5-DMA) could yield a re-test of yesterdayrsquos high of 51.20. On the lower side, breach of support at 50.62 (daily low) would expose the psychological support of 49.rdquo 12:30 Uncomfortable Brexit realities should send GBP/USD back to the low 1.20s - Westpac Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac, views that the solid consumer confidence of UK and position adjustment allowed GBP to rebound during the recent hiatus before Brexit negotiations genuinely begin. ldquoThe May government seems likely to have Brexit debated in parliament and is also being forced into revealing their negotiation plans. This unveiling of uncomfortable truths is likely, as previously stated, to mean that BoE will maintain its current accommodative stance. This combination should weigh on GBP once more. rdquo ldquoInflation pressures will rise, but the full impact of GBPrsquos slide is likely to be seen in early 2017. This will lead to a period of discomfort for BoE until Brexit impacts on the economy become clearer. rdquo ldquoConsumer confidence has defied Brexit concerns, so far, and so retail sales into the festive season will be of key interest, especially after the delayed Brexit reaction in production data. rdquo ldquoUncomfortable Brexit realities should send GBP/USD back to the low 1.20s. rdquo 12:29 US Dollar accelerates the downside, breaks below 100.00 The greenback ndash gauged by the US Dollar Index ndash has now accelerated its weekly correction lower, breaking below the 100.00 handle and testing the 99.90/85 band. US Dollar weaker ahead of ECB The index has come under renewed selling pressure today, briefly testing weekly lows near 99.80 recorded on Monday following the Italian referendum. Despite the current pause in the USD rally, the case for a stronger greenback in the longer run remains well and sound for the time being, as fundamentals for a sustained drop in the buck remain absent. Furthermore, and supporting the above, market participants have practically priced in a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its meeting next week and speculations of a Trump-led pick up in inflation expectations in the next periods stay on the rise. Data wise in the US docket, the usual report on the labour market is only due later in the NA session ahead of tomorrowrsquos advanced Consumer Sentiment gauge by the Reuters/Michigan index. The greenback will also remain under pressure in light of the imminent ECB meeting, with consensus expecting the central bank to extend its QE programme beyond March 2017, although attention will also be on any hint of a potential tapering. US Dollar relevant levels The index is retreating 0.38 at 99.90 and a break below 99.87 (low Dec.5) would expose 99.75 (38.2 Fibo of the November up move) and finally 99.38 (low Nov.14). On the other hand, the immediate resistance aligns at 100.65 (23.6 Fibo of the November up move) followed by 100.80 (20-day sma) and finally 101.88 (high Nov.30). 12:26 RBNZ Governor Wheeler sends mixed signals for the kiwi MUFG Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at MUFG, notes that the New Zealand dollar has been the top performing G10 currency in the Asian trading session supported by more stable financial market conditions and less dovish comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. ldquoHe reiterated that the RBNZrsquos monetary easing cycle has likely finished with their key rate likely to remain at 1.75 for the foreseeable future. The RBNZ expects current policy settings to help generate sufficient growth to have inflation settle near the middle of their target range. rdquo ldquoMore interestingly, Governor Wheeler also suggested that low global inflation and zero or negative policy rates in several major economies has put downward pressure on interest rates in New Zealand and upward pressure on the kiwi. A trend which he thinks might finally be ldquoturningrdquo. The comments have provided support initially for the kiwi as a change in the trend would encourage interest rates in New Zealand to rise more quickly than expected offering support for the kiwi. rdquo ldquoHowever, as Governor Wheeler suggested as well that the kiwi could ultimately be undermined by higher yields overseas dampening its relative appeal. The kiwi is already very strong and has benefitted from low yields overseas, so we would agree with Governor Wheeler that a trend reversal is more likely to result in a weaker kiwi beyond the near-term. rdquo 12:01 EUR/USD: Bulls conquer 1.0800 ahead of ECB The euro found renewed bids near 1.0760 region post-European open, triggered a fresh rally in EUR/USD to reach 1.08 handle. EUR/USD takes-out 1.08, what next Currently, EUR/USD jumps 0.45 to fresh 3-week highs of 1.0802, now making headways towards 50-DMA barrier located at 1.0830 levels. The bullish momentum behind the EUR/USD pair gained further traction in the European session, tracking a solid rally in the German yields, as most industry analysts believe that Draghi could offer some hints on tapering, in fact the monthly purchases could be tapered to euro60 billion from EUR 80 billion currently. ECB to embark on a taper course, reducing monthly purchases to euro60 billion - Citi Moreover, markets clear out USD longs heading into the event, with the greenback now retracing more-than quarter of the Trump-win led rally. Meanwhile, cautious trading activity seen on the European indices also collaborates to the upbeat momentum behind the funding currency euro. European stocks retreat from 11-month tops ahead of ECB. All eyes now remain on the ECB QE verdict and Draghirsquos presser for next direction on the major, while the US jobless claims due out in the NA session is expected to virtually have no impact on the prices. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0817 (Nov 15 high). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0830 (50-DMA) and from there to 1.0850 (psychological levels). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0721 (5-DMA) below which 1.0700 (round number) and 1.0680 (10-DMA) could be tested. 11:35 USD/JPY support expected to emerge at 111.60/109.60 Commerzbank In opinion of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, occasional bearish attempts should find support in the 111.60/109.60 band. ldquo USD/JPY continues to consolidate at the 100 week ma at 114.74, this together with a divergence of the daily RSI and a 13 count does point to a near term correction lower/consolidationrdquo. ldquoDips lower are expected to hold the 111.60/109.60 zone for a reattempt on the topside. Above here we also have the 115.41 top of the weekly cloud (this is also the location of the 61.8 retracement of the move 2015-2016) and we are allowing for a near term consolidation. Intraday Elliott wave counts are not as negative and we have raised our take profit levelrdquo. ldquoAbove 115.41 would target 120.00/120.10, the 78.6 retracement of the move down from 2015rdquo. 11:31 BOJ Kuroda wants to support Japans economic growth with the new policy framework Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor H. Kuroda crossed the wires last minutes, via Reuters, sounding optimistic on both inflation and growth outlook. 201639s International political uncertainties had a big economic impact Prices seen gradually rising to 2 on improving private consumption Domestic amp global economies heading in the right direction Policy debates based on objective data and analysis are important Want to support Japanrsquos economic growth with the new policy framework 11:28 USD/CHF flirting with weekly lows, ECB in focus The US Dollar came under some selling pressure in the past hour, with the USD/CHF pair reversing early tepid gains and drifting into negative territory. Currently trading around 1.0050 region, testing weekly lows, lack of greenback buying interest has been the key factor weighing on the major. Investors seemed to adjust their positions ahead of influential central bank monetary policy meetings, ECB and FOMC. ECB will announce its monetary policy decision later during European session and is widely expected to announce an extension of six month for its EUR 80b a month asset purchase program, which is scheduled to end in March. However, ECB inaction and (or) signal towards a possible tapering would highly disappoint market participants and might trigger a fresh bout of volatility in the FX markets, eventually provide some impetus for the Swiss Franc39s safe-haven demand. Moreover, disappointment from ECB could lead to a broad based US Dollar weakness and would attract fresh selling pressure around the USD/CHF major, thus increasing its vulnerability to extend the weakness further in the near-term. Technical levels to watch On a sustained weakness below 1.0050 level is likely to accelerate the slide towards 1.0015 intermediate support before the pair heads towards retesting parity mark. On the upside, 1.0080 level (session peak) now seems to act as immediate resistance above which the pair is likely to aim back towards 1.0100 handle before rising further towards its next resistance near 1.0140 region. 11:20 European stocks retreat from 11-month tops ahead of ECB Following a slide close on the Asian indices and Wall Street at record-highs, the European equity markets kicked-off Thursday on a firmer footing, taking on its winning streak into a fourth day today. However, nervousness quickly crept in across the markets and the regionrsquos indices pared gains, as investors took profits off the table ahead of the ECB policy decision, with wide expectations of an extension to its QE program. ECB to embark on a taper course, reducing monthly purchases to euro60 billion - Citi Also, a broadly higher euro weighed on the exportersrsquo stocks and dragged the index lower, although the downside seems cushioned on the back of hopes of additional easing measures from the ECB and positive oil prices. Meanwhile, Germany39s DAX 30 index rises 0.27 to 11,018 levels, while the UK39s FTSE 100 index trades marginally lower at 6,895. Among the other indices, the French CAC 40 index trades muted around 4,694 while the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index gains 0.18 to 3,145 points. 11:09 ECB: Draghi to maintain a balance - SocGen Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, suggests that the ECB President Mario Draghirsquos challenge at todayrsquos Council Meeting is to broker a deal whereby he doesnrsquot disappoint market expectations of an extension of the current (EUR80bn per month) asset purchase programme, while satisfying the demands of the more hawkish elements in the Council who want the pace of asset purchases to slow given the prospect of rising (but still low) core inflation and steady growth. ldquoItrsquos a fine balancing-act which may be achieved by extending the programme without specifying the pace of buying, or maybe could see an extension with a shorter period of commitment to EUR 80bn/month. rdquo ldquoEUR/USD seems to be driven by a combination of real yield differentials and recently) peripheral spreads in the FX Outlook, 39Playing with fire39. The 10year real yield differential has narrowed by 12bp and the BTP/Bund spread by just over 30bp since late November. Any failure by the ECB to commit to continued asset purchases at the current pace risks de-railing the recovery in BTPs and stopping the Eurorsquos bounce. After the French elections, ECB tapering risks reversing the lsquocrowding-outrsquo of European investors from domestic bond markets which has been so successful in keeping the euro down but for now, Irsquom more concerned about the possible impact on peripheral spreads (wider weaker Euro) than on Bund yields (higher stronger euro). Short EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK appeal here. rdquo 11:02 ECB to embark on a taper course, reducing monthly purchases to 60 billion - Citi Livesquawk reports a key headline from a Citi research report, which provides insights on the upcoming ECB policy decision. Analysts at Citibank expect to announce tapering today, by reducing monthly asset purchases to euro60 billion. 11:01 NZD/USD ADX tied to an extreme NZD/USD has captured the attention of market participants with its hourly ADX(14) hurdling above the 50 level. Accordingly to the ADX indicator, NZD/USD has surged above the key 50 level in a technical event that threatens the potential for its price action to remain constructive. Such a strong move encourages bulls to pile in, likely positioning stops close to the market to lock in profit. This may have the opposite effect of a squeeze, driving the prices lower to find less impulsive buyers. 10:57 GBP/USD rebounds to fresh daily highs near 1.2670 Upbeat momentum seen around the European equities has once again lent support to the GBP bulls, lifting the GBP/USD pair from a brief drop to 1.2615 region. The cable regains poise and now flirts with daily highs of 1.2672 amid risk-on market profile, as oil prices turn positive and the CBOE volatility index (VIX), fear gauge, drops -1.15. Moreover, stalled recovery in the US dollar across the board also opened doors for a renewed attempt to the upside in the major. Meanwhile, the USD index deflated from 100.20 levels to now trade around 100 barrier, down -0.27 on the day. Markets now eagerly await the ECB verdict on the QE program for any rub-off effect on the GBP/USD pair. Meanwhile, the US initial jobless claims data will also remain in focus as we head towards the mid-European session. In terms of technical levels, upside barriers are lined up at 1.2700 (round figure), 1.2720 (100-DMA) and 1.2776 (2-month top). While supports are seen at 1.2625 (Daily pivot) and 1.2610 (10-DMA) and below that at 1.2565 (daily S1). 10:55 USD/JPY keeps red below 113.50 level The USD/JPY pair was seen struggling to build on to its recovery move and continued trading with bearish bias for the second straight session ahead of ECB decision. Currently trading around 113.40 region, the pair weakened during Asian session and dropped closer to 113.00 region in absence of fresh US Dollar buying interest ahead of key central bank meetings. The pair, however, found some support at lower level after the final Japanese GDP for Q3 of 2016 was revised lower to show a growth of 0.3 as compared to 0.5 estimated earlier. Moreover, a sharp rise in Chinese imports and exports data eased concerns of a slowdown in the world39s second largest economy and boosted investor sentiment, eventually driving flows away from perceived safe-haven - Yen. Market participants on Thursday will remain focused on the ECB monetary policy decision . later during European session. ECB decision would be a key driver of broader market sentiment, which would derive the Japanese Yen39s safe-haven demand and eventually provide some impetus for the major ahead of the usual weekly jobless claims data from the US. Technical levels to watch Weakness below session low support near 113.15 level is likely to get extended, even below 113.00 mark, towards testing weekly lows support near 112.85 region. A follow through selling pressure below weekly lows support now seems to trigger a fresh leg of corrective slide towards 112.00 round figure mark with 112.45-40 area acting as intermediate support. Meanwhile on the upside, momentum above session peak resistance near 113.85 level should lift the pair beyond 114.00 mark towards testing an important resistance near 114.45-50 region. A follow through buying interest has the potential to continue boosting the pair initially towards multi-month highs resistance near 114.80 region and eventually towards 115.00 psychological mark. 10:47 Scandies between oil and central banks Danske Bank Arne Rasmussen, Head of FI Research at Danske Bank, has given his views on SEK and NOK in light of the recent price action. ldquoIn Sweden, the EUR/SEK fell further yesterday after the Riksbankrsquos Jansson39s comments admitting that monetary policy has its limits (this is somewhat of a new signal from one of the most dovish policy committee members). In particular, he admitted that there are limits to how much can be done via the exchange rate. We may see the EUR/SEK move lower, especially if the ECB comes out on the dovish siderdquo. ldquoGiven the continuing slide in oil prices, we see upside risk for the EUR/NOK although the NOK has remained fairly strong amid relatively positive global risk environment. The NOK is also traditionally trading on a weak note in the last weeks of the year, which should soon start to provide upward pressure on EUR/NOK in our view, unless the ECB strikes a very dovish tone todayrdquo. 10:40 EUR/USD choppy around 1.0780 ahead of ECB The single currency keeps the buoyant tone intact on Thursday amidst a broad-based offered bias around the buck, sending EUR/USD to the 1.0780 area during the European morning. EUR/USD all eyes on the ECB Spot is advancing for the second consecutive session, meandering just below the 1.0800/15 band, where coincide Mondayrsquos tops and the 38.2 retracement of the November drop. Cautiousness and further consolidation are expected around the pair as we get closer to the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference by President Mario Draghi. Consensus among investors sees the central bank extending its bond-purchase programme beyond March 2017, likely for an extra six months, leaving unchanged the monthly pace at euro80 billion. In addition, the central bank will revise its forecasts for inflation and growth in the region for the upcoming years, while market participants will pay special attention to any hint of potential tapering of the current QE programme at some point in 2017. Other than the ECB gathering in Euroland, the usual weekly report on the US labour market is only due across the pond. EUR/USD levels to watch The pair is now up 0.20 at 1.0776 and a break above 1.0798 (high Dec.5) would target 1.0815 (38.2 of the November drop) en route to 1.0848 (low Oct.25). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.0696 (low Dec.7) followed by 1.0669 (20-day sma) and finally 1.0503 (2016 low Dec.5). 10:22 Gold reverses tepid recovery gains Gold failed to build on Wednesday39 tepid recovery move and has now drifted into negative territory, reversing early minor gains to 1178.50 region, ahead of key monetary policy decisions from two of the most influential central banks, ECB on Thursday and FOMC next week. Currently trading around 1174 region, testing session lows, the precious metal intially benefitting from a mild US Dollar retracement as investors seemed to adjust their positions ahead of next week39s Fed meeting . A weaker greenback tends to boost demand for dollar-denominated commodities - like gold. The metal39s mild recovery momentum, however, lacked conviction as market remain convinced that the Fed would certainly raise interest-rates at next week39s meeting and would opt for steeper rate-tightening path in the near-future. Hence, focus would be on the accompanying Fed rate-statement, where markets will look for updated projections, especially 39dot plots39 in order to evaluate possibilities and timing of next Fed rate-hike action. CME group39s FedWatch Tool is currently pointing to 50 probability of another Fed rate-hike move in June and should the central bank outlook reinforce market expectations, it is likely to attract fresh selling pressure around the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, ECB monetary policy decision - led volatility in financial markets would derive the metal39s safe-haven demand and eventually provide some impetus on Thursday. Technical levels to watch Immediate downside support is pegged at 1170 region, which if broken decisively is likely to drag the metal back towards 1160 strong support. A sustained weakness below 1160 support is likely to turn the commodity vulnerable to break through 10-month lows support near 1157 level and head towards testing its next major support near 1152-50 region. On the upside, 1178-80 region seems to have emerged as immediate resistance above which the metal is likely to extend the recovery trend immediately towards weekly high resistance near 1188 region before aiming towards its next major hurdle near 1195-97 region. 10:21 GBP/USD back to neutral outlook near term UOB FX Strategists at UOB Group have shifted their outlook on Cable to neutral from bullish, now pointing to a rangebound pattern between 1.2480/1.2750 for the next weeks. ldquoThe anticipated pull-back in GBP was more resilient than expected as the break of 1.2625/30 led to a rapid drop to an overnight low of 1.2570. Despite the rebound from the low, the undertone is still weak and barring a move above 1.2670, a retest of the overnight low seems likely from hererdquo. ldquoThe bullish phase that started last Friday ended with the breach of 1.2630 yesterday (we advocated taking partial profit at 1.2770). The current movement is viewed as the start of a neutral consolidation phase, likely within a broad 1.2480/1.2750 rangerdquo. 10:16 EUR/USD support seen at 1.0710/1.0690 Commerzbank According to Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, spot appears initially supported in the 1.0710/1.0690 band. ldquo EUR/USD continues to hold steady yesterday just below the 38.2 retracement at 1.0816. Adding to the weight of resistance here - the March low can be seen at 1.0821 and the October low at 1.0851, our negative bias remains entrenched below hererdquo. ldquoAbove 1.0851 would initiate a deeper retracement to 1.0910 then 1.1000rdquo. ldquoIntraday dips should find some support at 1.0710/1.0690 ahead of the November 2015 low at 1.0523, and the recent low at 1.0505, which guards the March 2015 low at 1.0457rdquo. 10:10 USD/CAD drops to 2-month lows near 1.3200 The Canadian dollar is extending its upside momentum vs. its American peer on Thursday, now dragging USD/CAD to test fresh 2-month lows near the 1.3200 handle. USD/CAD lower on oil gains Spot is accelerating its weekly decline to the area of the key support at 1.3200 the figure, although it has managed to pick up some pace soon afterwards. The weekly bias remains well into the bearish camp nonetheless, reaching fresh 2-month lows in response to the recent rally in crude oil prices and retreating for the second week in a row. In fact, the West Texas Intermediate is up smalls so far today, trading just below the critical 50.00 mark per barrel after reaching 2016 tops beyond the 52.00 limestone on Monday. On the data front, market participants seem to have already digested the overall neutral stance from the BoC at yesterdayrsquos meeting, while Housing Starts and Building Permits are due later in Canada. South of the border, Initial Claims are only expected. USD/CAD significant levels As of writing the pair is losing 0.09 at 1.3224 and a breach of 1.3207 (low Dec.8) would open the door to 1.3194 (100-day sma) and finally 1.3065 (200-day sma). On the other hand, the next resistance lines up at 1.3311 (38.2 Fibo of the 2016 drop) followed by 1.3357 (high Dec.5) and then 1.3414 (20-day sma). 10:01 Hungary Consumer Price Index (YoY) increased to 1.1 in November from previous 1 10:01 Hungary Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) up to 1.5 in November from previous 1.4 10:01 Czech Republic Unemployment Rate down to 4.9 in November from previous 5 10:01 Hungary Trade Balance fell from previous 1005M to 891M in October 09:54 ECB to announce another extension to its monthly asset purchases BMO CM Research Team at BMO Capital Markets, notes that the ECBrsquos mandate is to maintain price stability, defined as ldquoa year-on-year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below, but close to, 2.rdquo ldquoIt is very disappointing that, with economic growth recovering, the latest Euro Area inflation rate is just 0.6 y/ymdashfar from being anywhere near 2. Even when energy prices are removed, CPI is up just 0.8 y/y. Since Mr. Draghirsquos first meeting as ECB president (November 2011), inflation has gone from 3.0 to 0.6, despite cutting the refi rate from 1.50 to 0, lowering the deposit rate below zero, buying euro80 bln worth of government bonds per month, and introducing TLTRO (in June 2014) along with TLTRO II and CSPP (in June 2016).rdquo ldquoExpect the ECB to announce another extension to its monthly asset purchases when it meets today . The program is currently slated to end in March 2017, but since the beginning of time, it seems, the disclaimer ldquoor beyond, if necessaryrdquo was included. Well, it is necessaryhellip again. Currently, we look for the timeframe to be extended six months to September 2017, but there are reports that it wonrsquot be that simple. Policymakers are considering a longer timeframe (beyond six months) but with fewer bond buys per month (so, less than euro80 bln, or possibly a return to euro60 bln). This will be the ECBrsquos signal to financial markets that the QE program has a limited shelf life and it wonrsquot hurt that Germany would give it the nod. However, donrsquot write the ECBrsquos easing program off too quickly. There are many ongoing problems in the Euro Area to contend with, many of which are political. Any worries about the resilience or longevity of the euro may push borrowing costs higher in coming months, which will require the attention of the ECB. rdquo 09:50 EUR and CHF vulnerabilities could trigger retests of 18- month extremes - Westpac Despite initial EUR rebounds after Italyrsquos referendum rejection, a failure to gain an effective technocrat government could trigger snap elections, would unsettle fragile confidence and increase financial sector pressures expects Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoAddressing the failure of Monte dei Paschi is merely dealing with symptoms of Italyrsquos NPL problems and these are merely a part of broader issues across the Eurozone. France is heavily exposed to Italyrsquos banking sector and Target 2 data (ECBrsquos cross border settlement system) show that Germany is effectively providing support to Italy. rdquo ldquoRecent survey data have been sound, but misses in core country November retail sector PMIs could presage a pullback for broader surveys in December. rdquo ldquoAnother deflationary Swiss CPI release underlined the need for SNB to continue NIRP at their 15th December meeting. rdquo ldquoIf USD strength resumes, EUR and CHF vulnerabilities could trigger retests of 18- month extremes. rdquo 09:46 CNY depreciation: The song remains the same - TDS Sacha Tihanyi, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TDS, notes that the post-election surge in US yields and the USD has hastened the pace of trend renminbi depreciation, and achieved TDrsquos long-standing 2016 end of year target of 6.88 earlier than expected. ldquoWhile we estimate a spike in renminbi lsquobetarsquo to broad USD movements, as is typical during periods of USD strength, we see little deterioration in the renminbi-negative fundamental context, and also donrsquot believe that the policy maker stance towards the currency has changed. rdquo ldquoThough we expect an eventual pause in the current pace of depreciatory pressure, in line with a stabilization in US yields and the USD, we expect trend depreciation to continue through 2017 as the fundamental context persists. rdquo 09:43 EUR/JPY consolidating in a narrow band, awaits ECB decision The EUR/JPY pair extended its consolidative move just below 6-month high touched on Monday and remained confined within a narrow trading band ahead of the much awaited ECB decision. Currently trading around 122.30 region, the cross was seen consolidating Monday39s sharp rebound from the vicinity of 200-day SMA, tested in the aftermath of a 39No39 vote on the Italian Referendum on Sunday. The cross subsequently surged to the highest level since early June but struggled to gain further traction as investors now cautiously await for this week39s key event risk, ECB monetary policy meeting . later during European session. The outcome of Italian Referendum heightened the need for the central bank to extend or even expand its EUR 80b a month asset purchase program, beyond its scheduled end in March. However, should the central bank hint towards tapering its asset purchase program should boost the shared currency across the board and provide fresh impetus for the pair39s strong upward trajectory witnessed since the beginning of last month. Also read: ECB Preview: between a rock and a hard place Omkar Godbole, Analyst and Editor at FXStreet, notes, quotThe pair failed to take out 123.07 (38.2 of Jul 2008 high - Jul 2012 low) - 123.36 (monthly 100-MA). The cross is overbought as per the daily RSI. The daily MACD suggests the bullish momentum is running out of steam. Thus, sideways to negative action in the range of 120.50-123.00 is likely in the short-run. On the higher side, a break above 123.36 would open doors for 125.00 levels. On the lower side, only a dip below 120.00 levels would suggest the rally from the June low of 109.42 has ended. quot 09:40 EUR/USD scope for a test of 1.0850 UOB FX Strategists at UOB Group argued there is still room for the pair to attempt a visit to the mid-1.0800s in the next weeks. ldquo EUR rebounded after touching a low of 1.0705/10 but the recovery is lacking in momentum. However, the immediate bias is tilted to the upside but at this stage, any further upmove is expected to face stiff resistance near the 1.0795/00 high seen on Mondayrdquo. ldquo EUR traded in a relatively narrow range yesterday and there is no change to the view wherein we expect the lsquopost-Italian referendumrsquo up-move to extend higher towards 1.0850. At this stage, a sustained move above 1.0850 seems unlikely. Only a move below 1.0640 would indicate that the short-term upward pressure has easedrdquo. 09:29 GBP/USD could slip back to 1.2413 Commerzbank Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, believes the pair could now grind lower towards the.12410 area. ldquo GBP/USD is at last showing signs of failure at the 1.2784 100 day ma. We will ideally now see the market drop to the 1.2413 two month uptrend. This remains the break down point to the 1.2090/85 October 11 and 25 lows. Intraday rallies are likely to now struggle circa 1.2665rdquo. ldquoFailure at 1.2085 would mean a continuation of the descent and should trigger losses to the October low at 1.1938 (according to CQG). Below it lies the May 1985 low at 1.1855. We regard the recent peak at 1.2674 as the end of the corrective phase and look for further lossesrdquo. 09:26 China s crude oil imports rebounded strongly in November, up 18 y/y The latest data from data from the sharply in November and jumped 18 y/y, while refined fuel exports hit a record high as small refiners (teapot traders) rushed to ease an expanding domestic surplus. Reuters reports, ldquoNovember crude oil imports at 32.35 million tonnes, or about 7.87 million barrels per day (bpd), up sharply from both 6.65 million bpd a year ago and 6.78 million bpd in October. rdquo 09:25 GBP/USD flirting with daily highs in the mid-1.2600s The selling bias around the buck is helping GBP/USD to advance to he area of session tops in the 1.2650/60 band on Thursday. GBP/USD deflates from 2-month tops The pair is managing to post gains after two consecutive pullbacks following the rejection from fresh 2-month peaks near 1.2780 earlier in the week, as fundamentals for a more sustainable upside remains absent for the time being. Poor UK data as of late plus an erratic performance of the greenback has been also supporting the choppy trade around spot in past sessions, although fears among investors of the likeliness of a lsquohard Brexitrsquo seem somewhat alleviated, underpinning GBP and limiting the downside at the same time. As Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank Jane Foley puts it: ldquoWe see risk for GBP/USD dipping back to the 1.24 area on a 3 mth view in recognition of the political uncertainty that still clouds the UK. In the absence of further signs that the UK could retain access to the EUrsquos single market post Brexit, we would argue that a recovery to the 1.30 area still looks to be a long way awayrdquo. GBP/USD levels to consider As of writing the pair is gaining 0.20 at 1.2651 and a break above 1.2776 (high Dec.6) would open the door to 1.2784 (100-day sma) and then 1.2862 (high Oct.4). On the flip side, the immediate support aligns at 1.2623 (low Dec.5) ahead of 1.2522 (20-day sma) and then 1.2485 (55-day sma). 09:17 USD: More legs to the yield fuelled rally - Westpac US yields are up sharply since Trumprsquos win (60bp) but historical analogues (taper tantrum amp QE2) suggest they could rise at least 100bp over 6-12mths and in short, therersquos more legs to the yield fuelled USD rally expects Richard Franulovich, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoAnother HIA style repatriation of foreign earnings, a more hawkish Fed as Trump fills 2 governor vacancies in 2017 as well as the chair and vice-chair in 2018, and a rolling run of 2017 European political risks (Dutch, German and French elections), should all sustain USD strength well into 2017.rdquo ldquoBut positioning suggests the USD is well owned, a Dec Fed hike is fully priced, our US surprise index suggests all the good news is priced in too and we are in a fiscal policy news vacuum likely until Trumprsquos 20 Jan inauguration. USD index could ease 1-2 before the next leg up. rdquo 09:14 ECB to announce an extension to their QE programme RBC CM Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, expects the ECB to announce an extension to their QE programme when they convene today. ldquoThe growth outlook for 2017 is challenging and, energy price developments aside, inflationary pressures remain weak. The exact form of an extension will depend on the outcome of the review of the asset purchase programme commissioned in September. However, we continue to see some watering down of the deposit rate floor (by allowing some purchases below the -40bp deposit rate whilst keeping the overall portfolio yield above that level) and allowing purchases to deviate from the capital key as the main changes necessary to allow purchases to continue beyond their current planned expiry in March. rdquo 09:11 Fed policy beyond a mid-December rate hike Wells Fargo Gary Schlossberg, Research Analyst at Wells Fargo, suggests that the financial marketsrsquo non-reaction to Italyrsquos ldquonordquo vote on constitutional reform removed the last obvious hurdle to a second rate increase by the Federal Reserve at next weekrsquos FOMC policy meeting marking the one-year anniversary of the central bankrsquos first rate hike in over a decade. ldquoLast yearrsquos initial attempt at interest-rate ldquonormalizationrdquo quickly fizzled amid fresh turbulence in Chinarsquos financial market and the latest in recurring U. S. growth slowdowns during an unusually long, but weak, economic expansion. Still unclear is if its second attempt at a return to the ldquoold normalrdquo in the financial markets will come up short again. An accelerated, post-election ldquoreflation traderdquo in the financial market is a vote of confidence by investors in a growth and inflation backdrop supportive of a sustained ldquoup cycle. rdquo Still unclear, however, is whether investorsrsquo expectations will be validated by economic data providing the starting point for determining the timing and frequency of policy moves beyond next week. rdquo ldquoPre-election forecasts centered on 2-2frac12 economic growth in 2017, adequate enough to support further inroads against unemployment, firmer wage-price inflation and two rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Hoped-for stimulus could kick in as early as the latter part of next year if Congress and the new administration move quickly, perhaps accommodating an extra rate increase by the Federal Reserve lifting the Fed funds rate a full percentage point from its current frac14-frac12 targeted range. rdquo ldquo Politics Ascendant. Taken together, fiscal and other policy unknowns are just one of several political issues capable of sidetracking planned interest-rate increases in the coming year. Among the ldquoknown unknownsrdquo are potential after-ldquoshocksrdquo from Sundayrsquos Italian no vote on efforts to recapitalize the countryrsquos ailing banks and avoid disruptive bail-outs capable of adding to the strains on a still-fragile European banking system. A more ldquoglobalizedrdquo Fed, responding to more integrated international markets, already is more attuned to the adverse consequences of overseas disturbances on ldquoorderlyrdquo market conditions in the U. S. Next yearrsquos general elections in Germany, France, the Netherlands and, in all likelihood, Italy are a series of potential flashpoints, risking a further spread of populism striking at the heart of the European Union (EU) and the Euro-zonersquos common currency. rdquo 09:06 NZD/USD clings to strong gains for second straight session The NZD/USD pair maintained its strong bid tone for the second consecutive session and jumped back above 100-day SMA to hit a 4-week high. The pair, however, has retreated from session peak and is currently hovering around 0.7200 handle. During Asian session on Thursday, the pair caught fresh bids after RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler offering less dovish picture for NZ Economy and said that interest rates were low enough to return inflation to his 2 percent goal amid a robust economic expansion. Wheeler39s comments diminished prospects of any further monetary easing by RBNZ in the near-future and lifted the pair to its highest level since Nov. 11. Moreover, upbeat Chinese imports and exports data eased concerns of an immediate economic slowdown in the world39s second largest economy and boosted demand for riskier / higher-yielding currencies - like the Kiwi. Later during European session, ECB monetary policy decision is expected to infuse volatility in the FX market and provide fresh impetus for the major ahead of US economic docket featuring usual weekly jobless claims data, later during NA session. Technical levels to watch From current levels, 0.7228 (Nov. 11 high) seems to act as immediate resistance above which the pair is likely to dart towards 0.7260-65 resistance area en-route its next major hurdle near 0.7300 handle. On the downside, 0.7165 area now becomes immediate support to defend, which if broken is likely to accelerate the slide towards 0.7125 support before the pair eventually breaks below 0.7100 handle and aim towards testing 0.7085-80 strong horizontal support. 09:03 Forex Today: China trade data - A beat, ECB in spotlight An eventful Asian session today, with the Australian trade data coming out weaker-than forecasts, while the Chinese imports and exports data outperformed, lifting overall market sentiment. While JPY traders shrugged-off softer Japanese Q3 final GDP release. Focus now remains on the upcoming ECB monetary policy decision, with a slight tweak expected in the QE program. The central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of the QE program beyond 2017. Analysts at ANZ noted, ldquoEUR/USD vols imply an uncertain outcome to December39s ECB meeting despite a baseline view that current QE will be extended by six months. Whilst modest broad-based growth is in place and headline inflation is recovering, there is no evidence of a pickup in core inflation yet. The focus for the market will also be on any adaptations to current QE rules and, critically, any guidance or hints on when tapering may start. rdquo Main topics in Asia NZ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 In today39s NZ half year economic and fiscal update of 2016, New Zealand sees 2016/17 net debt at 24.3 pct of gdp, with a budget forecast of 25.6 pct of GDP. Fonterra says total farmer payout this year likely to be 6.40/kgMS According to NZ Hearld, Fonterra Cooperative Group has told shareholders at its annual meeting in Darfield today that the farmer payout this season will be 6.40 per kilogram of milk solids. Australian Oct trade position was materially weaker than expected - Westpac Andrew Hanlan at Westpac notes his afterthoughts following the release of Australian trade deficit figures, which disappointed widening by 0.2bn to 1.5bn. Exports came in at 1.4, while imports at2.3. Chinarsquos Nov trade data (USD terms): Exports and imports surprise positively Following the release of Chinarsquos trade balance for November, in yuan terms . the China customs published the data in USD terms, showing that both the country exports as well imports surprised markets to the upside. Key focus for the day ahead EUR/USD fails once again near 1.0785 ahead of ECB The EUR/USD pair paused its steady upward path and now consolidates near upper bound of todayrsquos trading range, as investors eagerly await the ECB policy decision due later in the session ahead. ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme ndash Danske Bank Today, all focus will be on the long-awaited ECB meeting and Research Team at Danske Bank expects the ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme and maintain monthly purchases at EUR80bn. ECB: Draghi to ever so gently open the door to tapering - TDS Research Team at TDS, suggests that todayrsquos ECB meeting looks to be potentially the most market moving since the March decision, as the ECB has a number of issues to address, and overall, TDS thinks it would be much easier to disappoint rather than over-deliver relative to consensus. 09:03 France Nonfarm Payrolls (QoQ) remains unchanged at 0.3 in 3Q 09:02 Finland Trade Balance down to -0.19B in October from previous -0.07B 09:02 Australia: GDP report could be a rogue one - Westpac Australiarsquos economy has only shrunk in 3 quarters in the past 10 years (compared to e. g. 7 contractions in both the US and Canada, 9 in NZ), so this weekrsquos data is hard to brush aside, suggests Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac. ldquoThe timing of the economyrsquos shrinkage sits awkwardly in the context of ongoing global growth, as the RBA noted this week. To be sure, a soft quarter became increasingly likely as the Q3 partial data was released. rdquo ldquoThe RBA statement on Tue made it clear that it was braced for some ldquoslowing in the year-ended growth ratehellipbefore it picks up again. rdquo But how much slowing The median forecast was -0.1, well above the - 0.5 actual. And the RBArsquos quarterly forecasts a month ago provided a range of 2.5 to 3.5 on GDP for end-2016. Now that the Q3 contraction is in the books, Q4 GDP would have to surge 1.8 q/q in order to reach the 3.0 midpoint of that range. rdquo ldquoSo it seems a safe bet that the RBA was with the majority of us in being surprised at the extent of the weakness in Q3. The chart across plots annual growth in spending, showing that the private sector has been decelerating for some time. Yet special factors did conspire to make the Q3 weakness exaggerated, including oddities such as a fall in housing construction which must surely rebound, along with public infrastructure. rdquo ldquoThe ABS is also not reporting much benefit to Australian exporters from the surge in commodity prices since May, reporting Oct exports up a mere 1.4. Much better readings are surely ahead on GDP and exports though there will be extra focus on the Nov jobs data next week. Fortunately for AUD, the RBA doesnrsquot meet again until Feb and given the rise in global yields, rate cut talk isnrsquot likely to gain much traction. rdquo ldquoIndeed we expect the US dollar to take a step back after the fully priced in Fed rate hike next week, which should leave AUD/USD on track for the 0.76 area by the turn of the year. rdquo 09:01 Tumble in EUR/NOK volatility EUR/NOK ATR(14) is at minimums across several time frames, from 30min to daily charts. Volatility shrunk to levels not seen in several weeks of trading independently from trend direction. This signal augurs poorly for short-term traders because they indicate less direction for trend following and less volatility for mean reversion. It is advised to look for a catalyst and subsequent change in dynamics before entering EUR/NOK trades. 09:01 Turkey Industrial Production (YoY) rose from previous -3.1to 2 in October 08:57 Choppy recovery in USD/CAD - SocGen Choppy recovery in USD/CAD appears to have petered out recently after forming a bearish engulfing last week, suggests Research Team at Societe Generale. ldquoOn daily chart, it has faced stiff resistance near an upward channel limit of 1.3580, also the 50 retracement from January highs. After confirming a double top, it has pulled back towards initial target at 1.3260. With weekly stochastic near a multiyear ceiling, a deeper retracement canrsquot be ruled out. The pair is likely to continue the down move towards lower limit of the daily channel at 1.3080/1.30 with next significant support at multiyear channel near 1.28. Neckline of the double top at 1.3370 will be an immediate resistance. rdquo 08:56 USD/JPY bounces off lows, back near 113.50 The greenback is weaker across the board on Thursday, with USD/JPY navigating the mid-113.00s after testing lows near 113.20 in early trade. USD/JPY upside capped near 115.00 The pair is losing ground for the second consecutive session so far against a backdrop of a persistent offered bias around the US dollar. Spot, however, keeps navigating the upper end of the recent range following the strong up move seen in November, although a break above the key handle at 115.00 the figure still remains elusive, acting as a tough resistance for the time being. In the meantime, the pair stays well correlated to the performance of the yields of the US 10-year benchmark, while JPY speculative positioning has become net short for the first time this year during the week ended on November 29 as shown by the latest CFTC report. Data wise, US Initial Claims are only due later in the day although the ECB meeting during the European afternoon is poised to drive the sentiment in the global markets today. USD/JPY levels to consider As of writing the pair is losing 0.11 at 113.52 facing the immediate support at 112.84 (low Dec.5) ahead of 111.85 (20-day sma) and then 111.32 (low Nov.28). On the upside, a surpass of 114.83 (high Dec.1) would open the door to 114.89 (high Feb.14) and finally 116.86 (78.6 Fibo of the 2016 drop). 08:53 ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme Danske Bank Today, all focus will be on the long-awaited ECB meeting and Research Team at Danske Bank expects the ECB to announce a six-month extension of its QE programme and maintain monthly purchases at EUR80bn. ldquoThis is probably close to market expectations given a recent Bloomberg survey, where 64 of analysts expected a QE extension with the current pace kept unchanged. rdquo ldquoThe reason why ECB is widely expected to extend the purchases is that inflation is still not on a sustained path towards 2 despite the latest increase, which is due to energy price inflation (core inflation has remained constant since August).rdquo ldquoThe market focus has over the past couple of months been focused on the risk of 39tapering39 or 39end of easing39. However, in our view, that is premature and we do not expect the ECB to announce any kind of tapering at this meeting. rdquo ldquoInstead, focus is likely to be on potential changes to QE buying restrictions like the issuer limit, buying below the deposit floor at -0.40 or potential deviations to the capital key. Note that we do not in fact expect any of these changes to take place. Finally, the fixed income market will scrutinise if we see any changes to the securities lending programme (repo facilities) by the Bundesbank given the 39expensive bunds39 in the repo market. rdquo 08:47 ECB: Draghi to ever so gently open the door to tapering - TDS Research Team at TDS, suggests that todayrsquos ECB meeting looks to be potentially the most market moving since the March decision, as the ECB has a number of issues to address, and overall, TDS thinks it would be much easier to disappoint rather than over-deliver relative to consensus. ldquoWe look for the ECB to say that it will conduct asset purchases at least until Dec 2017, but at an euro80bn/month pace only through June 2017, leaving the door open for tapering beginning in mid-year. Markets will also be eyeing updated macro forecasts, and especially the HICP forecast for 2019, as the ECB has moved forward introducing its 2019 forecasts by 3 months, likely for a good reason. We look for HICP at 1.8 in 2019, helping the ECB to justify an eventual move to tapering. However, we look for his meeting to merely open the door to tapering, and in fact for Draghi to likely go to pains to avoid using the word ldquotaperrdquo altogether and stick to language more in line with just adjusting the amount of monthly purchases. rdquo ldquoOutside of the monetary policy decisions, the ECB will also have to deal with bund scarcity, where we think that it will drop the deposit rate threshold for its QE purchases, and at the same time relax the constraints on its Securities Lending Programme in order to mitigate the pressure on schatz. Overall we look for Draghi to ever so gently open the door to tapering, boosting the EUR by around 1, and on the rates side we like German 2s5s flatteners and 5s30s steepeners, as well as 10y gilt-bund tighteners. rdquo 08:30 AUD/USD trims Chinese data-led gains beyond 0.7500 mark The AUD/USD pair struggled to sustained its move beyond 0.7500 psychological mark and has now reversed majority of Chinese trade data-led gains to 3-week high. Currently trading around 0.7490 region, with only marginal gains, the pair initially was seen building on to previous session39s reversal from disappointing Australian GDP-led slide to 0.7415 region and surged past 0.7500 handle following the release of Chinese trade balance data. Although, the overall trade balance fell short of consensus estimates, a better-than-expected rise in both exports and imports provided a boost to the Australian Dollar. The pair, however, lost its upside momentum as a higher-than-expected Australian trade deficit (also released on Thursday) was seen weighing on the Australian Dollar. Later during NA session, the usual weekly jobless claims data from the US will be looked upon for short-term trading opportunities, while ECB monetary policy - led volatility in the FX market might also contribute to the pair39s momentum on Thursday. Technical levels to watch Immediate downside support is pegged at 0.7480-75 area (session low) below which the pair is likely to accelerate the slide towards 0.7455-50 region before eventually dropping to 0.7415-10 strong horizontal support. On the upside, sustained strength back above 0.7500 handle, leading to a momentum above 0.7510 level, should boost the pair further towards the very important 200-day SMA resistance near 0.7530 region. 08:27 China: Trade surplus narrowed from US49.06b to US44.61b - TDS Chinarsquos Nov trade surplus narrowed from US49.06b to US44.61b with both exports and imports higher than the market expected, notes Research Team at TDS. ldquoImports jumped 6.7/yr (vs mkt ndash5.0/yr), the most since Oct 2014 boosted by a rise in coal and iron ore imports (good news for Australia). Coal imports rebounded to the most since Dec 2014. Export beat consensus too, 0.1 (mkt was ndash5.0) although exports to HK usually raise a red flag. rdquo 08:27 USD/CNY: Yuan rebounds on stronger Yuan fix, upbeat China trade The Chinese currency staged a solid recovery and now trades better bid versus its US counterpart, after yesterdayrsquos USD/CNY rally amid reports that the Chinese forex reserves dropped to the lowest levels since March 2011. The Yuan firmed today per dollar on the back of a stronger Yuan fix and limited demand for the US currency by the corporate world. Moreover, upbeat Chinese trade data also provided some support to the local currency. China39s Nov trade data (CNY terms): Below estimates, but both exports amp imports jump The PBOC set the yuan reference point against the US dollar at 6.8731, 77 basis points or 0.12 stronger than Wednesdayrsquos fix of 6.8808. Meanwhile, the USD/CNY pair traded almost flat at 6.8797 at mid-day, 9 basis points lower than previous close. 08:23 Gold rallies are anticipated to 1187-1190 - Natixis Micaella Feldstein, Research Analyst at Natixis, suggests that the daily volatility tends to tighten and the daily stochastic has picked up as far as gold is concerned. ldquoBesides, the weekly volatility starts to stabilize and the weekly stochastic is oversold. Against this backdrop, rallies are anticipated to 1187-1190 (daily parabolic).rdquo ldquoA break of this area would reduce the downside threats of a dip back to the 1160-1164 area (weekly Bollinger lower band) and would open the door for a sustained recovery to 1208 (daily Bollinger moving average) and 1228 (9-week moving average).rdquo ldquoThe supports stand at 1160-1164, at 1145, at 1127-1133 and at 1100.rdquo 08:18 Italy: Snap elections, Renzis gamble - TDS Research Team at TDS, suggests that while markets have shrugged off the Italian Referendum, the political situation on the ground remains fluid. ldquoIn spite of Renzirsquos defeat at the polls and conventional wisdom that he was done, recent developments seem to support our view that he has been written off too quickly. rdquo ldquoWhile he is still likely to step aside, and we would still put larger odds on Italy not seeing new elections until 2018, there is a rising risk that Renzi sees an opportunity to push elections much faster than expected, holding them as early as Q1, and catch his opponents off-guard. rdquo ldquoWhile Renzi lost, details in the polling results suggest support for Renzi and his PD party has actually grown, at the expense of Berlusconirsquos Forza Italia. rdquo ldquoRenzi may take a gamble of pushing elections in February or March, where his PD party could find a coalition partner to control the Senate while the lower House of Deputies would come down to a showdown between PD and Five Star. If Renzirsquos gamble paid off, he could strengthen his parties standing with a new mandate ndash but if not, Five Star could surprise and cobble together coalition partners in a new government or send Italy to a hung parliament if PD cannot control both Houses and ongoing electoral chaos. rdquo ldquoThis game of chicken would likely weigh substantially on EUR in the short-term if it materializes. Downside risks remain acute and we highlight options like our EURUSD parity option from our 2017 Outlook as near-term uncertainties rise and 2017H1rsquos European political risk calendar gets more dense. rdquo 08:05 EUR/USD fails once again near 1.0785 ahead of ECB The EUR/USD pair paused its steady upward path and now consolidates near upper bound of todayrsquos trading range, as investors eagerly await the ECB policy decision due later in the session ahead. EUR/USD: 1.0700 holds key support Currently, EUR/USD keeps moderate gains to trade around 1.0772 levels, unable to chew offers lined up near 1.0785/90 region. The main currency pair remains well bid, although pared gains amid improved markets sentiment following upbeat Chinese trade data release, which diminished bids for the funding currency euro. The sentiment around the major remains underpinned on the back of ongoing weakness seen in the US dollar versus its major peers, as attention now turn their focus towards the ECB monetary policy decision due later in the European session, with markets expecting the central bank to extend its QE programme beyond March 2017. Further, any hints on when the bank would start tapering its asset purchases will be closely eyed. EUR/USD Technical Levels In terms of technicals, the pair finds the immediate resistance 1.0798 (3-week highs). A break beyond the last, doors will open for a test of 1.0817 (Nov 15 high) and from there to 1.0850 (psychological levels). On the flip side, the immediate support is placed at 1.0700 (round number) below which 1.0676 (10-DMA) and 1.0641 (20-DMA) could be tested. 08:02 EUR/NOK sitting flat right now The following EUR/NOK set-up, outlined from an hourly perspective, consists of a weakening technical structure accompanied by very low volatility. Recent trading has been happening below the 50 exponential moving average, a bearish condition which, should it persist, would make more SAR indicator dots appear above the prices. Low volatility will eventually switch to higher. However, with reversal signals currently absent in the SAR for more than 16 consecutive hours, risks remain statistically higher for the selling to dry up and for a counter move to ensue in EUR/NOK. Since this set-up is usually associated with the formation of gently downward sloping channels, the first resistance to challenge on the upside is the potential channel top. 07:55 China: FX reserve drain continues - Nomura Chinarsquos headline FX reserves fell by USD69.1bn m-o-m in November to USD3.052trn (the largest month-on-month fall since January 2016), in line with Nomurarsquos expectation of a USD70.0bn decline to USD3.051trn (Consensus: USD60bn decline to USD3.061trn), notes Research Team at Nomura. ldquoAfter adjusting for FX valuation and coupon payments, FX reserves fell by USD28.6bn m-o-m (estimated USD17.4bn m-o-m drop in October), highlighting intervention by authorities to stabilise RMB against a backdrop of broad post-election USD strength. With the current pace of headline FX reserve loss and global/local dynamics going into 2017, headline FX reserves are likely to break the USD3trn mark in the next few months. This could negatively affect investor sentiment, but at the current pace of outflows we believe China still has enough reserves (even accounting for estimated FX forwards and external assets it could potentially tap) to maintain its current FX policy stance through 2017 ndash that is, periods of FX flexibility with sporadic FX USD selling intervention. rdquo ldquoOver the medium term, we expect RMB to depreciate and express this view through short CNH positions against both USD and a CFETS basket in our Asia FX portfolio, given: 1) US political and Fed policy risks, as well as global political uncertainty 2) net capital outflows, even amid rising exporter remittances, foreign portfolio inflows and more stable local growth 3) continued RMB overvaluation and as FX policy flexibility is expected to increase over the medium term and 4) our analysis showing that there may be a bias to keep the RMB TWI stable when broad USD is strong, and weaker when broad USD is soft. rdquo 07:37 China s imports grew at the fastest pace in more than 2 years - RTRS Reuters came out with more insights on the latest China trade, citing the main factors behind the exports and imports figures. China39s imports grew at the fastest pace in more than two years, fueled by its strong thirst for commodities from coal to iron ore Exports also unexpectedly rose, reflecting a pick-up in both domestic and global demand China39s imports of major commodities including iron ore, crude oil, coal, soybeans and copper all surged by volume in November, despite a sharp weakening in its yuan currency China import of iron ore the third highest monthly tally on record Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist of Singapore-based Capital Economics, noted quotThe improvement reflects a strengthening in global demand, with recent business surveys suggesting that developed economies are on track to end the year on a strong note. rdquo 07:31 Netherlands, The Consumer Price Index n. s.a (YoY) rose from previous 0.4to 0.6 in November 07:22 Gold: Recovery intact on solid Chinese imports, ECB eyed Gold keeps its Asian recovery mode intact, although eased slightly from session tops on the back of resurgent demand for risky assets such as the equities, in wake of upbeat Chinese trade numbers. Gold flirts around 1180 Currently, Comex gold futures trade with mild gains around 1179.20, retreating slightly from session tops reached at 1180.55. Gold prices find support from better-than expected Chinese imports and exports figures released earlier on the day for the month of November, highlighting increased external demand from the worldrsquos top consumer of gold. However, further recovery appears to lack follow-through as upbeat China data has brought along a renewed risk-on wave into markets, curbing the demand for gold as a safe-haven. Next of note for the major today remains the ECB decision due later in the day. Comex Gold Technical Levels The metal has an immediate resistance at 1185.40 (daily R2) and 1189.46 (20-DMA). Meanwhile, the support stands at 1175.58 (5-DMA) below which doors could open for 1157 (multi-month low). 07:18 ECB between a rock and a hard place - ANZ The market is optimistic that the ECB will extend its quantitative easing programme today at current levels for a further six months, notes Sharon Zollner, Senior Economist at ANZ. ldquoThere is a real risk of unpleasantness in European bond, equity and FX markets if Draghi doesnrsquot at least meet expectations. However, as well as the general emerging political concern about unintended consequences of QE for bank profitability and income inequality, there are undeniable political aspects to the fact that through its bond-buying the ECB is propping up the bond markets ndash and hence banks ndash of some countries with clearly unsustainable debt loads. rdquo ldquoThe longer the charade continues, the larger the eventual bill for the European (read German) taxpayer, via ECB/central bank Target 2 settlement balances. Has the ECB, having done ldquowhatever it takesrdquo for years now, averted catastrophe or merely deferred it It seems unlikely that Draghi will be willing to fold his hand tomorrow and find out. Thatrsquos certainly the marketrsquos bet. rdquo 07:14 AUD/JPY: Risks are on the upside - Natixis Risks are on the upside for the AUD/JPY cross as upside parallels have emerged on the daily chart and as an upside bubble has also emerged on the weekly chart, suggests Micaella Feldstein, Research Analyst at Natixis. ldquoAgainst this backdrop, dips to 83.50-83.70 (daily parabolic) and even to the 81.60 threshold (9-week moving average) will be seen as corrective: we indeed favour another test of the resistance at 85.70 (monthly parabolic). The break of this barrier would underpin bullish momentum, flagging 86.90 (9quarter moving average) and 89.05 (quarterly Bollinger moving average) as targets. The supports stand at 83.50-83.70, at 81.60, at 79.30 and at 77.60.rdquo 07:10 NZ: A stronger fiscal war-chest ANZ David Croy, Senior Rates Strategist at ANZ, suggests that all in all todayrsquos HYEFU was fairly upbeat and will be taken well by the market, as one would expect given the underlying strength of the economy. ldquoIt showed stronger growth forecasts, slightly higher surpluses, lower net debt, and acknowledged the impact of the Kaikoura earthquake. But the new 2040 inflation-linked bond (ldquolinkerrdquo) planned for next year might surprise some. rdquo ldquoThe Treasury now sees GDP growth of 3.6 and 3.5 respectively over 2017 and 2018 (up from 2.9 and 3.2 forecast in the May Budget). Tweaks to GDP forecasts further out were minor, with 2019 growth revised up from 2.8 to 2.9 and 2020 revised down 0.1 to 2.4.rdquo ldquoThe Treasuryrsquos analysis assumes that the net cost to the Crown of the Kaikoura earthquake will be 1bn (out of a total cost estimate of 2-3bn, with the remainder covered by insurances and existing Budget allocations).rdquo ldquoImportantly, nominal GDP is assumed to be a cumulative 23.7bn higher than assumed in the Budget, courtesy of stronger nominal GDP year-to-date (i. e. a better starting point), stronger real GDP forecasts, and expected higher prices ndash CPI inflation is forecast to reach 2.0 in 2018 and hold steady thereafter. Collectively, these factors support the collective 1.1bn improvement in OBEGAL over the forecast period (compared to the Budget), despite absorbing a net 1bn hit from the Kaikoura earthquakes. rdquo ldquoFor markets, the ldquosurpriserdquo will be in the detail of the bond programme. Although most (including us) assumed the hit from the Kaikoura quake would lead to an upgrade in current year issuance (duly lifted from 7bn to 8bn), the surprise is that the slack will be taken up by planned syndication of a 20 September 2040 linker to be launched via syndication in calendar H1 2017. There was no change to the 2017/18 and 2018/19 bond programmes, but a 1bn reduction (from 7bn to 6bn) in 2019/20.rdquo ldquoThe fiscal impulse is expected to turn expansionary in 2016/17 and 2017/18, largely thanks to capital spending increases. The fiscal stance was contractionary to the tune of 0.4 of GDP over the 2015/16 year, but it becomes positive to the tune of 0.9 and 0.1 of GDP respectively over 2016/17 and 2017/18 respectively. Beyond that there is ldquopaybackrdquo, neutralising the overall fiscal impulse over the next 5 years. rdquo ldquoRisks to the outlook are assumed to be greater than in the Budget, and the HYEFU contains two scenarios. The first assumes slower trading partner growth (especially in China). In this scenario, growth, tax revenue and OBEGAL are all assumed to be lower. The second explores the inflationary impact capacity constraints may have on the economy ndash potentially leading to faster nominal growth, higher tax revenue and better surpluses. rdquo 07:02 BoC: Overnight rate stays at 0.5 - RBC Economics In a brief 313 word statement, the Bank of Canada validated its decision to maintain the overnight rate at 0.5 citing the as-expected strengthening in the global economy and evolution of the ldquodynamics of growthrdquo in Canada as noted by the Dawn Desjardins, Deputy Chief Economist at RBC Economics. ldquoIn statement, the Bank contrasted developments in Canada relative to the US with the US economy operating ldquonear full capacityrdquo while Canadarsquos economy continues to have ldquoa significant amount of economic slackrdquo. Unlike in past statements, the Bank refrained from making a statement regarding the risks to the inflation outlook perhaps in part due to the elevated level of uncertainty about the direction of US fiscal and trade policy under the new Administration. The Bankrsquos only reference to the US election was to point to the sharp rise in global bond yields that occurred since November 8 as markets priced in expectations that the new government will implement a fiscal stimulus plan that will support stronger economic growth. Against this backdrop, yields in other global bond markets, including Canada, rose. rdquo ldquoOn the domestic front, the Bank acknowledged the strong rebound in the third quarter and in line with its October forecast anticipates that the pace of growth will moderate in the current quarter. The statement rehashed what happened in the third quarter but provided no commentary about recent developments. rdquo ldquoTo be sure, the risks to the outlook are elevated given developments outside Canadarsquos borders however they cut both ways with the prospect of a stimulusndashinduced strengthening in US growth opening the door for increased demand for Canadian exports facing off with concerns about rising protectionist policies clipping any upside. rdquo ldquoOur forecast assumes that the US economy will grow at a firmer pace in 2017 and that any action on changing trade policies that would affect Canada will be slow-moving, if they occur at all. For Canada, this is likely to translate into a firmer year for growth in 2017 and will likely result in the Bank maintaining the overnight rate at 0.5 throughout the year. rdquo 07:02 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook increased to 49.1 in November from previous 49 07:02 Japan Eco Watchers Survey: Current climbed from previous 46.2 to 48.6 in November 06:59 Moody s: Australian banks funding stability improving buffer is strong capital levels The US-based ratings agency, Moodyrsquos Investors Service came out with their latest report on the Australian banks, highlighting that the Australian banks39 funding stability has been improving, while asset quality metrics is gradually deteriorating, but buffered by strong capital levels, Livesquawk reports. 06:46 USD/JPY: Bulls rescued by upbeat China trade, reverts to 10-DMA The USD/JPY pair stalled its downslide following the release of better-than expected Chinese imports and exports data, now attempting a tepid bounce back towards the mid-point of 113 handle. USD/JPY back below 5-DMA at 113.74 The persisting risk sentiment got a boost from auspicious Chinese trade figures, calming fears over an economic slowdown in China. Hence, the yen was knocked-off amid re-emergence of risk-on trades, lifting USD/JPY from session troughs of 113.15. The Chinese exports came at 5.9 y/y vs -0.1 expected and -3.2 last, while imports jumped 13.0 y/y vs 3.6 expected and 3.2 last. Moreover, renewed buying interest seen around the Japanese stocks, also aided the recovery in the major. The major is last seen changing hands at 113.38, looking to regain 10-DMA at 113.51, still down -0.34 the day. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 113.74 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 114 (zero figure) and 114.83 (10-month high) beyond the last. While to the downside, the immediate support is seen at 113.15 (daily low) next at 112.84 (Dec 5 low) and below that at 112.49 (20-DMA). 06:23 Australia: Trade deficit disappoints, widened by 0.2bn to 1.5bn - Westpac In October, Australiarsquos trade deficit disappointed, widening by 0.2bn to 1.5bn with exports surging by 1.4 and imports posting a gain of 2.3 as noted by the Andrew Hanlan, Research Analyst at Westpac ldquoFor October, the trade position was materially weaker than expected. The anticipated improvement failed to materialise in October, with the deficit actually widening a little. The October deficit of 1.5bn follows a 1.3bn deficit in September and compares unfavourably to expectations (mkt median -0.6bn and Westpac -0.2bn) Exports disappointed and imports surprised to the high side. Exports earnings increased by 1.4, 390mn, vs a forecast 4.2 Coal lifted but only by 240mn vs a forecast 700mn with upside risk Metal ores dipped by almost 100mn despite partial information suggesting that volumes rose Fuels, including LNG, rose 230mn, centred on rising volumes as additional LNG capacity comes on stream. Imports increased by 2.3, 660mn, vs a forecast 0.5. Capital goods jumped almost 0.5bn, despite the ongoing decline in business investment. Gains were also evident in services, 135n, which have been strengthening of late, as well as consumption and intermediate goods. rdquo ldquoLooking ahead, the official data is yet to reflect the surge in coal prices. As this is belatedly feed into the export figures, along with rising LNG volumes, the trade position is likely to move into surplus. rdquo 06:17 NZ: Kiwi fiscal books shine again - TDS Research Team at TDS, views that larger budget surpluses via a stronger economy has lowered New Zealandrsquos debt ratios and NZGB issuance over the medium term. ldquoAfter much consideration, NZ1b was allocated towards the net costs associated with the Kaikoura earthquake, hence the 2016/17 budget surplus estimate was lowered from NZ719m to NZ473m (0.2 of GDP).rdquo ldquoA stronger economy lifted revenue forecasts by nearly NZ8b across the forecast period, and with such a confluence of positive fundamentals, we see NZGBs as an attractive hold at current yields. rdquo 06:14 NZGB increased by 1bn from 7bn to 8bn for the year ended June 2017 - Westpac Imre Speizer, Research Analyst at Westpac, notes that the treasuryrsquos half-year fiscal update has resulted in little change overall to the NZGB issuance program. ldquoThe Treasuryrsquos half-year economic and fiscal update today depicted an improved fiscal position compared to the May Budget, thanks to higher tax revenue commensurate with the stronger economy. rdquo ldquoThe NZGB program has been increased by 1bn from 7bn to 8bn for the year ended June 2017 (possibly related to earthquake costs), but decreased by 1bn for the 2020 year, leaving the 2017-2020 total unchanged. rdquo ldquoThe NZDMO announced its intention to issue a 2040 inflation-indexed NZGB via syndication by 30 June 2017.rdquo ldquoDebt level projections are lower than they were in May, below 25 of GDP which compares favourably with most developed countries. Global investors should view this fiscal update favourably. rdquo ldquoDebt levels are projected to decline over time but not at a fast enough pace to hurt secondary market liquidity. Anecdotally, the threshold for an adverse impact on liquidity is around 50bn in outstandingrsquos. rdquo ldquoThere was little reaction in the swap or NZGB markets to the HYEFU, although the NZD rose a touch. The 2025 swap spread was unchanged at15bp. rdquo 06:01 Chinas Nov trade data (USD terms): Exports and imports surprise positively Following the release of Chinarsquos trade balance for November, in yuan terms, the China customs published the data in USD terms, showing that both the country exports as well imports surprised markets to the upside. Trade Balance (USD) Nov came in at 46.3B surplus versus 46.9B exp. and 49.06B last Exports (YoY) Nov: 0.1 (est. -5.00, prev. -7.3) Imports (YoY) Nov: 6.7 (est. -1.9, prev. -1.4) 06:00 Depressed USD/JPY falls below key SMA USD/JPY has just crossed below its 200-hour SMA. The last such price-indicator cross has been registered at least over a week ago on this time frame, accentuating its significance. Traders maintaining a downside bias, extend their projections to the 800-SMA, which corresponds to the 200-SMA on 4hr charts. 05:59 China Trade Balance USD came in at 44.61B below forecasts (46.3B) in November 05:55 AUD/USD rises to 3-week high as China imports rise in Yuan terms AUD/USD rose to a three-week high of 0.7509 after the trade data released in China showed the imports rose much higher than expected. The spot was last seen trading just above 0.75 handle. The currency pair clocked a low of 0.7475 earlier today. Chinese imports rose 13.00 y/y in Yuan terms, which is far better than the expected rise of 3.6. Meanwhile, exports rose 5.9 y/y, beating the estimated drop of 1.0. Chinarsquos customs bureau, following the data release, said the pressure on the exports is likely to ease in the early part of 2017. Consequently, the Aussie is trading on the front foot. AUD/USD Technical Levels A convincing break above 0.7507 (Oct 13 low) would open doors for 0.7558 (Oct 28 low) beyond which a major hurdle is seen at 0.76 (zero figure). On the lower side, breach of support at 0.7475 (session low) would shift risk in favor of a drop to 0.7431 (Dec 6 low) and 0.74 (zero figure). 05:54 China Customs: Pressure on exports from China likely to ease beginning of 2017 Comments from China customs bureau spokesperson are crossing the wires following the release of the Chinese trade report. Pressure on exports from China likely to ease beginning of 2017 05:49 China s Nov trade data (CNY terms): Below estimates, but both exports amp imports jump Chinarsquos trade balance for November, in yuan terms, came in at CNY298.111bn vs CNY 320bn expected and 325.25 last. Exports came at 5.9 y/y vs -0.1 expected and -3.2 last, while imports jumped 13.0 y/y vs 3.6 expected and 3.2 last. The release in USD terms will hit the wires within the next hour approximately. The data is a positive input for the Aussie, as both exports and imports were reported much higher-than expected. As a reminder the Australian Dollar is impacted on Chinese data, given the close links with the Chinese economy (Australia39s main trading partner). At present, the AUD/USD exchanges hands just ahead of 0.75 handle, up 0.31 so far. 05:46 China Imports (YoY) above forecasts (-1.3) in November: Actual (13) 05:46 China Exports (YoY) came in at 5.9, above expectations (-5) in November 05:45 China Trade Balance CNY fell from previous 325.25B to 298.11B in November 05:29 China s banks are hiding more than 2 trillion in loans - WSJ The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) came out with a latest story on the Chinese banking sector, highlighting that the banks are hiding rising amounts of potential losses by calling some loans as investment receivables on their balance sheet. ldquoAs of June, 32 publicly traded Chinese banks had a total of 2 trillion in investment receivables as of June, up from 334 billion at the end of 2011, according to a tally by The Wall Street Journal of the latest available information from data provider Wind Information Co. rdquo ldquoThe investments are equivalent to 20 of the same banks39 total loans in dollar terms, up from 6 at the end of 2011rdquo 05:25 Oil enjoys moderate gains on US inventory drop Oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic ticked higher in Asia after the data released overnight showed a drop in the US crude stockpiles. At the time of writing, WTI Oil was trading 0.22 higher at 49.88/barrel. Meanwhile, Brent was trading around 53/barrel. US oil inventories dropped 2.4 million barrels in the week that ended on Dec. 2. This was higher than the expectation of a 1 million draw. However, gains are being capped on skepticism regarding the OPEC deal. There is growing fear in the market that the OPEC members may not respect the deal, while the Shale producers may produce more in response to the higher oil price. 05:14 ECB Preview: Focus on any guidance or hints on tapering - ANZ The Research Team at ANZ presented a brief preview on the ECB monetary policy decision due for announcement today at 1245GMT, followed by ECB president Draghirsquos presser at 1300GMT. ldquoEUR/USD vols imply an uncertain outcome to December39s ECB meeting despite a baseline view that current QE will be extended by six months. rdquo ldquoWhilst modest broad-based growth is in place and headline inflation is recovering, there is no evidence of a pickup in core inflation yet. rdquo ldquoThe focus for the market will also be on any adaptations to current QE rules and, critically, any guidance or hints on when tapering may start. rdquo ldquoEUR/USD failed to break below 1.05 following the defeat of the Italian referendum. We view rallies as corrective and selling opportunities. rdquo 05:07 Australian bond yields drop on weak trade data and ECB Dismal trade data and expectations that ECB would provide more stimulus pushed Australian government bonds higher. The yields dropped across the board, with the 10-year falling six basis points to 2.744. The 2-yr yield, which is more sensitive to the short-term rate hike/inflation expectations, dropped 2.4 basis points to 1.809. The data released earlier today showed Australiarsquos trade deficit blew out unexpectedly in October. A deficit of AUD 1.541 billion was recorded, which was larger than the upwardly-revised AUD 1.272 billion figure of September. Meanwhile, expectations that the ECB would extend the maturity of its bond buying program also supported bond prices. 05:05 BOJ ETFs buying seen lifting Nikkei 225 to mid-1990s high FT The Financial Times (FT) ran a story today, citing that BOJrsquos ETF investments are expected to push the Nikkei 225 index above 21k mark by 2017-end. The FT further reports, in the past two weeks alone, the BOJ has broken two of its own records to reassert its reputation as the ETF maestro. Analysts at Nomura noted, ldquoThe Nikkei 225 could end next year above 21,000 for the first time since the mid-1990s supported by the BoJrsquos ETF purchases. rdquo Makoto Shiota, the head of ETF business promotion at Nomura explained, ldquoThe Bank of Japan had an indirect influence. By making purchases of ETFs when stock prices go down, the BoJ gives a sense of peace of mind to investors. rdquo 05:03 EUR/USD MACD higher lows indicates upside ahead A run of EUR/USD MACD higher highs and lows, could imply a shift in sentiment ahead. In recent weeks, the pair has suffered declines, but in the short term at least, we could experience a move to bullish sentiment. This is highlighted by the MACD posting higher highs and lows on the 4-hour chart. At the same time, price action is posting lower lows, which should indicate that spot has bottomed out for the time being. 05:02 NZD/USD powerful rally threated From an hourly perspective, the NZD/USD has reached its highest momentum reading of the last 20 days of trading. Recent NZD/USD longs are speculative and likely vulnerable. Unless they are fed with comforting releases, a torrent of selling could very well ensue in the form of profit taking and/or forced liquidation. With the fresh printed hourly MACD showing less acceleration, the prospect for a base building or correction in the near future looks to be quite realistic. 04:42 USD/JPY on its way to test Wednesdays low, shrugs off poor GDP The yen reverses weaker Japanese GDP-led losses and now swung back into positive territory versus, knocking-off USD/JPY to fresh session lows near the mid-point of 113 handle. The dollar-yen pair ran through fresh sellers just ahead of 5-DMA after the US dollar came under renewed selling pressure against its main peers amid fresh sell-off seen in the shorter-duration treasury yields. Moreover, a retreat in the Japanese stocks from multi-month tops on profit-taking, also weighed on the investorrsquosrsquo sentiment, boosting the safe-haven appeal of the yen. While markets moved past worse-than expected Japanese Q3 final GDP print, while upbeat trade figures from Japan somewhat buoyed the sentiment around the yen. Japan (final) Q3 GDP arrived at 0.3 q/q versus 0.5 expected, and 0.5 preliminary. The major is last seen changing hands near session troughs struck at 113.47, down -0.18 the day. Focus now remains on the Chinese trade data and the much-awaited ECB policy decision, which is expected to have major impact across the fx board. USD/JPY Technical levels to watch The major finds immediate resistance at 113.74 (5-DMA). A break above the last, the major could test 114 (zero figure) and 114.83 (10-month high) beyond the last. While to the 04:32 New Zealand BPS: Fiscal Impulse to turn expansionary, China is a risk ANZ ANZ Research team takes note of the expected fiscal stance in New Zealand over the next five years and the risks to the economic outlook in its report on lsquo2016 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) and 2017 Budget Policy Statement (BPS). The fiscal impulse is expected to turn expansionary in 2016/17 and 2017/18, largely thanks to capital spending increases. The fiscal stance was contractionary to the tune of 0.4 of GDP over the 2015/16 year, but it becomes positive to the tune of 0.9 and 0.1 of GDP respectively over 2016/17 and 2017/18 respectively. Beyond that there is ldquopaybackrdquo, neutralising the overall fiscal impulse over the next 5 years. Risks to the outlook are assumed to be greater than in the Budget, and the HYEFU contains two scenarios. The first assumes slower trading partner growth (especially in China). In this scenario, growth, tax revenue and OBEGAL are all assumed to be lower. The second explores the inflationary impact capacity constraints may have on the economy ndash potentially leading to faster nominal growth, higher tax revenue and better surpluses. 04:31 Japan Inc sees global trade contraction under Trump Reuters poll A Reuters poll shows Japanese corporate see a contraction in the global trade on account of a potential rise in US protectionism under the Trump Presidency. Of the 531 firms surveyed, 40 expected the global trade to shrinking in the medium-term, 4 saw full-fledged trade was, while 32 donrsquot expect any change. 04:19 Australian Treasurer Morrison: Government continues to engage with SampP on AAA rating - ABC Australian Treasurer Morrison was on the wires earlier on the day, via ABC radio, noting that the Government continues to engage with SampP on AAA rating, Livesquawk reported. 04:10 AUD/NZD slumps to fresh monthly lows below 1.0400 The AUD/NZD pair cross remains relentlessly sold-off into NZD/USDrsquos solid upsurge following the release of upbeat NZ 2016 Half-yr economic and fiscal report. AUD/NZD remains below 1.0400 Currently, the AUD/USD pair trades -0.45 lower at 1.0393, recovering slightly from monthly lows struck at 1.0381 in the last hour. The spot makes minor-recovery attempts after having faced aggressive selling pressure last hours as the NZD bulls continue to cheer upbeat assessment of the NZ economy in today39s NZ half year economic and fiscal update of 2016. NZ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 While the cross largely ignored weaker-than expected Australian trade data, which showed the countryrsquos deficit widening by AUD0.2bn to AUD1.5bn. The immediate focus now remains on the Chinese trade report, which is expected to be on the cards any minutes. AUD/USD Levels to watch The pair finds the immediate resistance at 1.0429 (Daily high) above which gains could be extended to the next hurdle located 1.0455 (5-DMA) and 1.0470 (10-DMA). On the flip side, the immediate support located 1.0347 (daily S2). Selling pressure is likely to intensify below the last, dragging the Aussie to 1.0300 (key support) and below that at 1.0265 (Sept 19 low). 03:53 New Zealand BPS Surprise is in bond buying program ANZ Research ANZ Research takes note of the surprise offered by the New Zealand budget statement in its report on lsquo2016 Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) and 2017 Budget Policy Statement (BPS). Although most (including us) assumed the hit from the Kaikoura quake would lead to an upgrade in current year issuance (duly lifted from 7bn to 8bn), the surprise is that the slack will be taken up by planned syndication of a 20 September 2040 linker to be launched via syndication in calendar H1 2017. There was no change to the 2017/18 and 2018/19 bond programmes, but a 1bn reduction (from 7bn to 6bn) in 2019/20. 03:50 Australian Oct trade position was materially weaker than expected - Westpac Andrew Hanlan at Westpac notes his afterthoughts following the release of Australian trade deficit figures, which disappointed widening by 0.2bn to 1.5bn. Exports came in at 1.4, while imports at2.3. For October, the trade position was materially weaker than expected. The anticipated improvement failed to materialise in October, with the deficit actually widening a little. The October deficit of 1.5bn follows a 1.3bn deficit in September and compares unfavourably to expectations (mkt median -0.6bn and Westpac -0.2bn) Exports disappointed and imports surprised to the high side. Exports earnings increased by 1.4, 390mn, vs a forecast 4.2 Coal lifted but only by 240mn vs a forecast 700mn with upside risk Metal ores dipped by almost 100mn despite partial information suggesting that volumes rose Fuels, including LNG, rose 230mn, centred on rising volumes as additional LNG capacity comes on stream. Imports increased by 2.3, 660mn, vs a forecast 0.5. Capital goods jumped almost 0.5bn, despite the ongoing decline in business investment. Gains were also evident in services, 135n, which have been strengthening of late, as well as consumption and intermediate goods. Looking ahead, the official data is yet to reflect the surge in coal prices. As this is belatedly feed into the export figures, along with rising LNG volumes, the trade position is likely to move into surplus. 03:37 NZD/USD peeps above 0.72 after Fonterra boosts payout forecast The NZD / USD rose to an Intraday high of 0.7211 after reports hit the wires that Fonterra has boosted the forecast payout to farmers by 50 cents to 6.40 a kilo of milk solids. The pair was last seen just below the 0.72 handle. The upward revision of the forecast payout was expected after gains this week in global dairy auction prices. The cooperative has been steadily boosting its forecast payout in response to rising dairy prices since September. The focus now is on the China trade data. Later in the day, the ECB rate decision could influence the broader market sentiment. NZD/USD Technical Levels A break above the daily high of 0.7211 would expose 0.7265 (Oct 20 high). A violation there could yield a test of 0.73 handle. On the other hand, a breakdown of support at 0.7182 (session low) would open doors for a sell-off to 0.7152 (50-DMA) and 0.7119 (10-DMA). 03:16 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.8731 vs 6.8808 PBOC sets USD/CNY at 6.8731 vs 6.8808 03:13 Fonterra says total farmer payout this year likely to be 6.40/kgMS According to NZ Hearld, Fonterra Cooperative Group has told shareholders at its annual meeting in Darfield today that the farmer payout this season will be 6.40 per kilogram of milk solids. Main headlines - NZ Herald The cooperative boosted its forecast farmgate milkprice for the current season to 6/kgMS last month after rising global dairy prices, adding an estimated 3.8 billion to New Zealand39s economy. It previously stated the additional dividend would be based on an earnings per share forecast of 50 to 60 cents. Fonterra39s policy is to pay out 65 to 75 per cent of adjusted net profit after tax over time and today chairman John Wilson indicated this year39s dividend would be 40 cents per share once retentions are taken out. That compares to the 4.30/kg MS paid out in the 2015/2016 season which included a farmgate milk price of 3.90 and a 40 cent dividend. 03:09 Federal judge removes order that had allowed Michigan s recount A federal judge lifts order that had allowed Michigan39s recount, effectively ending it, Livesquawk reports. 03:01 Bearish print added to the EUR/SEK chart The 100-hour SMA dips below the 200 SMA, leaving a key EUR/SEK spot level on the upside. More Pair traders could be joining the bearish bandwagon upon this signal, while others might chose a less vulnerable commitment by expecting the price to rise minimally to the 200 SMA and only then targetting for lower levels. A close above this all-important SMA would negate its bearish implications. 02:59 AUD/USD: 0.7500 was broken but bears jumped on poor trade data Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7488, up 0.11 on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7507 and low at 0.7474. AUD/USD has penetrated the 0.75 handle and levels that it has been attempting since late November - however, to little avail and sellers are back in taking the pair down to current aforementioned spot at the time of writing after the Aussie trade data. We had a big miss on trade balance and that does not look good for Q4 GDP after yesterday39s contraction for Q3. This begs the question as to whether the RBA can really 39chill out39 at the moment In respect to the greenback, the Fed is likely to hike in December and these weigh on the currency that can39t seem to even catch continued bid with any conviction on the back of coal and iron ore39s uptrend. Australia Trade Balance below forecasts (-800M) in October: Actual (-1541M) Spot is presently trading at 0.7488, and next resistance can be seen at 0.7507 (Daily High), 0.7510 (Weekly Classic R1), 0.7512 (Daily Classic R2), 0.7531 (Daily 200 SMA) and 0.7540 (Daily Classic R3). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7486 (Daily Classic R1), 0.7485 (Yesterday39s High), 0.7480 (Weekly High), 0.7480 (Daily Open) and 0.7476 (Daily 20 SMA). 02:49 USD/CNY fix model: Projection at 6.8733 - Nomura Nomura39s model projects the fix to be 75 pips lower than the previous fix (6.8733 from 6.8808) and 117 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close of 6.8850. The basket implied change is 143 pips lower than the previous official spot USD/CNY close (6.8707 from 6.8850), Nomura adds. 02:41 NZ Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update 2016 In today39s NZ half year economic and fiscal update of 2016, New Zealand sees 2016/17 net debt at 24.3 pct of gdp, with a budget forecast of 25.6 pct of GDP. nz sees 2020/21 obegal surplus nz8.5 billion nz sees 2017/2018 obegal surplus nz3.3 billion (budget forecast: nz2.455 billion) nz sees net debt declining to 18.8 pct of gdp by 2020/21 nz sees 2016/17 cash balance nz-2.19 (budget forecast: nz -4.2 billion) nz sees 2016/17 obegal surplus nz 0.47 billion (budget forecast: nz0.719 billion) nz finmin: net nz1 billion in earthquake costs which cannot be met from other sources added to budget forecasts nz finmin: total fiscal cost of kaikoura earthquake forecast between nz2 billion to nz3 billion nz sees march 2017 yr real gdp growth at 3.6 pct (budget forecast: 2.9 pct) nz finmin: surplus lower than forecast due to impact of kaikoura earthquake and acc insurance costs nz finmin: gdp growth to average around 3 pct over next five years driven by construction, tourism, migration, low interest rates nz finmin: contributions to superannuation will restart in 2020/21 when net debt falls below 20 pct of gdp nz finmin: says responding to earthquake and reducing debt are higher priorities than income tax cuts now nz finmin: says govt will consider options for income tax cuts either in 2016/2017 or later as fiscal situation improves nz finmin says sees 2016/2017 bond issuance nz8 billion vs nz 7 billion in budget update nz finmin:if australian economy slipped into recession, sees number of implications for nz 02:32 Australia Imports increased to 2 in October from previous -1 02:31 Australia Trade Balance below forecasts (-800M) in October: Actual (-1541M) 02:31 Australia Exports: 1 (October) vs previous 2 02:30 USD/JPY: a buy on dips Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 113.63, down -0.12 on the day, having posted a daily high at 113.86 and low at 113.58. USD/JPY is slightly lower on the open in Tokyo vrs a corrective move overnight that reached a high of 113.99. Analysts at Westpac offered the Yen as a high conviction trade at the end of last month with a buy USD/JPY and buy stop at 109.20. quotBoJ likely sidelined for a while with retail sales, jobs to applicants and household spending all stronger lately and higher commodity prices coupled with the weaker yen signaling an improved pulse in prices and inflation expectations. USD/JPY will be all about the FOMC in Dec and Trump in Jan. We stick with the view that mth-end/yr-end flows favour profit taking and a dip back toward the 200dma - Buy that dip. quot With spot trading at 113.64, we can see next resistance ahead at 113.77 (Daily Open), 113.86 (Daily High), 113.87 (Hourly 20 EMA), 113.91 (Daily Classic PP) and 113.92 (Hourly 100 SMA). Support below can be found at 113.62 (Daily Classic S1), 113.58 (Weekly Low), 113.58 (Daily Low), 113.45 (Hourly 200 SMA) and 113.41 (Yesterday39s Low). 02:04 United Kingdom RICS Housing Price Balance registered at 30 above expectations (26) in November 01:54 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis declined to 587.6B in October from previous 642.4B 01:53 AUD/USD: testing firm resistance aheda of 0.7500 before key data coming up Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7483, up 0.05 on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7489 and low at 0.7474. AUD/USD is probing the upside and a level that it has failed at continuously since its first attempt since late November. The market has been backing the US dollar since Trumps victory and on the basis that the Fed is likely to hike in December and these weigh on the currency that can39t catch continued bid with any conviction on the back of coal and iron ore39s uptrend. For today, while we are in a void ahead of next week39s FOMC, we await the China39s trade surplus and Australia39s trade balance as the next catalysts. quotAustralia39s trade balance should be nearing a surplus in Oct thanks to higher prices, particularly for coal. China39s trade surplus is estimated to have shrunk slightly, both exports and imports higher, quot explained analysts at Westpac. Current price is 0.7483, with resistance ahead at 0.7485 (Yesterday39s High), 0.7486 (Daily Classic R1), 0.7489 (Daily High), 0.7510 (Weekly Classic R1) and 0.7512 (Daily Classic R2). Next support to the downside can be found at 0.7480 (Weekly High), 0.7480 (Daily Open), 0.7476 (Daily 20 SMA), 0.7474 (Daily Low) and 0.7464 (Hourly 20 EMA). 01:52 Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) dipped from previous -0.1to -0.2 in 3Q 01:51 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.3, below expectations (0.6) in 3Q 01:51 Japan Gross Domestic Product Annualized below expectations (2.4) in 3Q: Actual (1.3) 01:51 Japan Bank lending (YoY) unchanged at 2.4 in November 01:51 Japan Foreign bond investment: -887.6B (December 2) vs previous 112.3B 01:51 Japan Current Account n. s.a. above expectations (1577.2B) in October: Actual (1719.9B) 01:51 Japan Foreign investment in Japan stocks rose from previous 330.5Bto 400.1B in December 2 01:12 JOLTS review: above pre-recession levels - Nomura Analysts at Nomura offered the JOLTS review. quotJob openings were 5534k in October, in line with market expectations of 5500k following a revised 5631k job openings in September (previously reported as 5486k). Hirings and separations edged lower by 22k and 61k, respectively, implying that labor market churn (turnover) slowed in October. Although openings, hirings and separations slowed in October, the respective rates were little changed from the prior month. The job opening rate remained steady at 3.7, hiring rate at 3.5, and separation rate at 3.4. Overall, the job opening rate is above pre-recession levels but hiring and separation rates have yet to fully recover which may be an indication that there are structural frictions that is holding back the labor market from more job-worker matches. quot 01:02 Positive oscillator behavior in EUR/CHF Increased upward momentum in the EUR/CHF pair in recent days has brought the MACD to hurdle above its median line. The condition could be taken by sellers as a reason to jump out from short positions, as well as spur demand for the EUR/CHF among potential buyers. Outlined on the daily perspective, the oscillator has not printed above zero at least for three weeks, a reason to pay attention to an otherwise less meaningful technical event. 00:51 ECB to extend its quantitative easing programme - ANZ Analysts at ANZ explained that the market is optimistic that the ECB will extend its quantitative easing programme tomorrow at current levels for a further six months. quotThere is a real risk of unpleasantness in European bond, equity and FX markets if Draghi doesnrsquot at least meet expectations. However, as well as the general emerging political concern about unintended consequences of QE for bank profitability and income inequality, there are undeniable political aspects to the fact that through its bond-buying the ECB is propping up the bond markets ndash and hence banks ndash of some countries with clearly unsustainable debt loads. The longer the charade continues, the larger the eventual bill for the European (read German) taxpayer, via ECB/central bank Target 2 settlement balances. Has the ECB, having done ldquowhatever it takesrdquo for years now, averted catastrophe or merely deferred it It seems unlikely that Draghi will be willing to fold his hand tomorrow and find out. Thatrsquos certainly the marketrsquos bet. quot 00:35 GBP/USD dipping back to the 1.24 area on a 3 mth view - Rabobank Analysts at Rabobank explained that while position adjustment can explain this monthrsquos move higher in the pound, without a new piece of supportive UK political news we see little additional upside potential near-term. quotAlthough the market appears to be expecting the Supreme Court to rule against the government, this news should by now be priced-in. Additionally, despite Downing Strsquos promise of more details on Brexit plans there remains a huge fog over the position that the UK government intends to take with its EU counterparts. Yesterday PM May choose to describe her Brexit plan as a red, white and blue one. Although this was an unabashed attempt to capture nationalistic sentiment, it also suggests that the government may still have very little additional details to offer. Chancellor Hammond, however, did yesterday repeat that the government ldquowouldnrsquot rule out the possibility of some ongoing contribution in some form is we have an ongoing relationshiprdquo. Although this is line with the comments from Brexit Secretary Davies last week, it appears that this is only one of a number of potential options. We see risk for GBP/USD dipping back to the 1.24 area on a 3 mth view in recognition of the political uncertainty that still clouds the UK. In the absence of further signs that the UK could retain access to the EUrsquos single market post Brexit, we would argue that a recovery to the 1.30 area still looks to be a long way away. quot Data source: FX Street Disclaimer :This material is provided by FXStreet as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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